$BTC $SOL $TRUMP See, isn't that interesting? All the previous talk about rate hikes was actually just to suppress prices. After a drop, it starts again...

This is so similar to 2025... Back in 2025, there was constant hype about the tariff war, making it seem like WWIII was imminent, but then it fizzled out and sent FOMO through the roof... However, this time the US stock market barely fell; only crypto took a hit more severely...

Citigroup: Rate hike rationale has disappeared, expects Fed to restart rate cuts in October

On July 5, Citigroup Research said in its US Economic Weekly report released on July 2 that the June US nonfarm payroll data significantly weakened, strongly refuting the need for rate hikes. Citigroup believes that multiple factors that previously supported the hawkish stance—including rising oil prices, accelerating wage growth, and core PCE exceeding targets—have all subsided, and "the rationale for rate hikes has disappeared."

Data shows that June US nonfarm payrolls added only 57k jobs, far below expectations, and the previous two months' data were revised down by a combined 74k jobs. After revisions, the three-month average monthly nonfarm growth dropped to about 111k, significantly down from the pre-revision level of over 180k. The June unemployment rate fell from 4.296% to 4.189%, but Citigroup believes this was mainly due to the labor force participation rate dropping from 61.8% to 61.5%. If the participation rate had remained unchanged, the actual unemployment rate would have risen to above 4.5%.

On inflation, Citigroup said that multiple factors are jointly dragging down price pressures. Oil prices have fallen back to pre-conflict levels, and July CPI and PCE data are expected to show month-on-month declines; further slowing of housing rent will also drag down core CPI and core PCE. Additionally, the methodological revision of core PCE will adopt a more reasonable price adjustment method for AI-related goods. Citigroup estimates that after the revision, the year-on-year growth rate of core PCE could be lowered by 20 to 30 basis points, which will be formally reflected in September.

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Citigroup maintains its baseline forecast, expecting the Fed to hold rates steady at the July and September FOMC meetings, cutting by 25 basis points at the October 28 meeting for the first time, and then another 25 basis points in December, bringing the federal funds rate range to 3.0% to 3.25% by year-end. Citigroup also expects the Fed to cut rates three more times in 2027, with the terminal rate range at 2.75% to 3.0%.#比特币巨鲸两周狂扫27万枚BTC #非农爆冷打压加息预期 #现货黄金站上4200