July 7 $BTC Comprehensive Market Analysis

🤯 News/Macro Side:

Trump crypto-related news dominates sentiment: Trump publicly boasts of making billions from crypto, while many retail supporters suffer heavy losses. Although this exposes the risk of "exit liquidity," it also reinforces the politicization and mainstream adoption narrative of crypto, which is bullish in the long run.

No major negative macro black swan: Inflation expectations support risk assets, and the market is generally stable. Historical data from July 4 shows that BTC has a seasonal bias toward strength in July over the long term.

🤯 Fund Flow:

ETF fund flows have clearly improved, ending the previous continuous outflow pressure:

On July 1, there was a large single-day outflow (approximately -$296 million), but on July 2, a strong rebound of +$223.5 million (FBTC leading with +$166 million, ARKB +$91.8 million) broke the 10-day outflow streak.

Latest data on July 6: total net inflow of approximately +$46.6 million. Institutional funds have shifted from "bleeding" to stable/small-scale inflows.

Leverage and on-chain: The recent rebound has been primarily driven by short squeezes. In the liquidation data from July 4-5, 95% were short-term short liquidations, with forced buying pushing up prices. The funding rate had been negative, creating conditions for the squeeze. After leverage reset, the system is healthier, but spot demand needs to follow to confirm sustainability.

🤯 Technical Analysis:

Yesterday, I mentioned that there would be a pullback at the one-hour level. And indeed, after the pullback yesterday, there was a reverse rally triggered by Trump's news. I also reminded everyone that the upper resistance was at 64,400, and after reaching 64,400 yesterday, it pulled back.

Now comes the key point: we are truly at the long-short dividing line. We need to watch whether 64,400 can hold. If it cannot hold, we need to pay attention to the risk of a four-hour level top divergence. However, all current pullbacks are small-level retracements; from the daily level, we cannot yet determine that a top has been reached.

So in summary, intraday attention should be on the 15-minute and one-hour level risks. Even if the price pushes higher from here, risk outweighs opportunity. On the downside, focus on support levels at 62,700 and 61,800, and resistance at 64,300–65,300.