From AI Chips to Digital Assets: A Full Analysis of Global Market Winners and Losers in the First Half of 2026

In the first half of 2026, global capital markets presented an extremely polarized landscape. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 rose about 20% in the first half, but the driving force behind this rally was no longer the "Magnificent Seven" that dominated the past two years—their total return actually fell about 2% in the first half. Funds are shifting from traditional AI application-layer giants to the hardware supply chain of AI infrastructure.

Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market experienced its toughest half-year since the launch of ETFs. Bitcoin retreated over 50% from its all-time high of $126k at the end of 2025, falling 32% in the first half; Ethereum fell even deeper, at 47%. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded their first half-year net outflow of $5.4 billion. Commodity markets also saw violent volatility—gold plunged nearly 30% after hitting an all-time high of $5,598 per ounce in January; Brent crude fell from near $120 per barrel in March to around $70 per barrel. From three dimensions—AI chip stocks, cryptocurrencies, commodities, and forex—this article systematically reviews the winners and losers in the first half of 2026 and attempts to deduce potential logical paths for the second half.

AI Chip Stocks: A Dramatic Internal Rotation

In the first half of 2026, a remarkable power shift took place within the AI chip sector.

NVIDIA, which had accumulated gains of about 900% over the past five years, unexpectedly "stalled" in the first half—its stock price rose only 7.2%. Meanwhile, its long-suppressed rivals AMD and Intel surged 171% and 278%, respectively. Behind this dramatic rotation is the classic narrative of funds flowing from crowded top AI trades to relatively undervalued assets.

Intel has long dominated the CPU market, currently holding more than a 59% share; AMD has climbed from a low of about 17% in 2016 to 38% today. More critically, under the leadership of CEO Chen Liwu, Intel is advancing its AI transformation strategy, with the U.S. government purchasing a 10% stake for about $10 billion last summer. In its latest quarterly report, Intel's revenue grew 7%, beating expectations for the sixth consecutive quarter. AMD has successfully grown in the GPU market, offsetting CPU share gains.

From a broader perspective, the AI infrastructure supply chain has completely surpassed the traditional "Magnificent Seven." The storage sector rose 318.49% in the first half, ranking first among all sub-sectors; computer hardware rose 165%, and semiconductor equipment and materials rose 129%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged 101% in the first half. Nearly all of the Nasdaq 100's roughly 20% gain in the first half was driven by ten AI-related chip manufacturers and storage hardware companies.

However, heading into the second half, the rotation direction may reverse again. NVIDIA's current forward P/E ratio is only about 22x, appearing relatively cheap after its nearly flat adjustment in the first half; while AMD and Intel, after triple-digit surges, are now in expensive territory. NVIDIA is set to launch its first independent CPU this fall as part of the Vera Rubin platform, and the company has forecast independent CPU sales of $20 billion this year. CPUs are the key chips driving "agentic AI," and the market generally expects this to become the next growth engine for AI. With valuation repair and catalysts from new businesses, the likelihood of NVIDIA outperforming again in the second half is rising.

Cryptocurrency: First Half-Year Net Outflow in the ETF Era

In the first half of 2026, the crypto market faced its toughest test since the launch of spot ETFs.

As of the end of June, Bitcoin fell 32%, Ethereum fell 47%. Strategy—the world's largest corporate Bitcoin holder—fell 43%. The total crypto market cap dropped about 30% to around $2 trillion, erasing all gains since Trump's election in November 2024.

Fund flow data reveals deeper structural issues. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of $5.4 billion in the first half of 2026, the first half-year negative since launch. In May and June alone, BlackRock's IBIT contributed $5 billion of those outflows. Spot Ethereum ETFs also recorded their first half-year negative since launch, with net outflows of $1.47 billion over 123 trading days.

The deterioration was particularly evident in the second quarter. Bitcoin briefly rebounded to around $82,000 in April, but the trend reversed thereafter. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw total net outflows of $4.08 billion in Q2, with June alone seeing $3.84 billion in outflows. Bitcoin fell about 11% in Q2, while Ethereum fell about 20%. Total long liquidations for Bitcoin and Ethereum reached $8.35 billion.

DWF Labs noted that the AI boom coincided with the first half-year loss in Bitcoin ETFs—funds and attention are shifting from crypto to AI. This rotation effect was particularly pronounced in Q2: while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 rose about 16% and 28% respectively, crypto assets continued to correct.

However, market sentiment improved marginally in July. In the early hours of July 7, 2026 (Beijing time), strong buying suddenly poured into the crypto market, with Bitcoin breaking through the key resistance level of $63,000, last trading at $64,159. Ethereum followed, rising above the $1,800 mark. Bitcoin rose about 1.7% in 24 hours, with a 7-day cumulative gain of over 6%, the highest in nearly two weeks. According to CoinGlass data, total liquidations across the market in the past 4 hours reached $160 million, with short liquidations accounting for $112 million. This surge directly triggered dense short stop-loss orders above, creating a chain-reaction "short squeeze."

On-chain data shows that the daily exchange transfer volume of long-term holders fell from an average of 8,040 BTC a week ago to 4,130 BTC recently, indicating that selling pressure from long-term holders has significantly eased. The derivatives market has also stabilized, with Bitcoin perpetual contract funding rates rising to 9%, and long-short positions becoming more balanced.

On the macro front, the Fed's policy path remains a key variable. As of July 7, the CME FedWatch tool showed the market pricing a 77% probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in July. Fed Governor Waller has warned that inflation risks outweigh employment risks, and the June CPI data will be key to judging the July FOMC meeting and whether rate hikes follow. If rate hike expectations fade further, it could provide additional macro liquidity support for the crypto market.

Commodities and Forex: Winners and Losers in a Rollercoaster Market

Commodity markets also experienced extreme volatility in the first half.

Gold was undoubtedly one of the biggest losers. On January 29, 2026, spot gold in London hit an all-time high of $5,598.75 per ounce. But it then weakened persistently, falling below $4,000 per ounce by mid-to-late June, plunging over $1,600 from its peak, a retreat of nearly 30%. Spot gold prices in London fell 7.51% overall in the first half. Gold's crash was suppressed by multiple factors: capital diversion to AI, a strengthening dollar, and rising market expectations of Fed rate hikes. Gold fell over 13% in Q2, its worst quarterly performance since Q2 2013.

Crude oil experienced an extreme "rollercoaster" ride. Brent crude futures, after nearing $120 per barrel in March, gradually declined, falling back to around $70 per barrel by the end of June, erasing all gains from the US-Iran conflict. However, due to low starting levels at the beginning of the year, WTI crude still rose 21.6% in the first half, and Brent crude rose 20%. Crude oil became one of the few commodities to post positive returns in the first half.

In forex, the US Dollar Index first fell and then rose in the first half, rising from a low of 95.5 at the start of the year to above 101 by mid-year, gaining nearly 3%. The dollar rose 3.8% against the yen, pushing the yen to near 40-year lows. A stronger dollar added extra pressure on dollar-denominated gold and cryptocurrencies.

Conclusion

The global capital markets in the first half of 2026 were essentially a concentrated release of the "AI hardware-ization" trend. Funds flowed from software, platform economies, and some traditional tech giants to hardware supply chains such as chip manufacturing, storage devices, and semiconductor equipment—this was the clearest capital migration path in the first half.

The intense rotation within AI chip stocks, the deep crypto market retracement, gold's crash, and crude oil's rollercoaster together painted a picture of extreme market polarization. But behind the divergence lies a unified logical thread: uncertainty over Fed monetary policy, questions about the sustainability of AI capital expenditure, and recurring geopolitical risks collectively shaped the market landscape in the first half.

Heading into the second half, several key variables deserve ongoing attention: whether NVIDIA's fall CPU launch can kick off a new hardware narrative, the policy path choice at the Fed's July FOMC meeting, and whether the crypto market can rebuild capital inflow trends after the half-year net outflow. Regardless of direction, the second half of 2026 will likely continue to be dominated by the tug-of-war between AI hardware and macro liquidity.

FAQ

Q: Why did AI chip stocks experience such a sharp divergence in the first half of 2026?

NVIDIA rose only 7.2% in the first half, while AMD and Intel surged 171% and 278%, respectively. The core driver was capital flowing from highly valued top AI names to CPU tracks that had significantly underperformed but were seeing fundamental improvements. Intel secured a ~$10 billion investment from the U.S. government and beat earnings expectations for six consecutive quarters; AMD successfully broke through in the GPU market, jointly providing fundamental support for the catch-up rally.

Q: Why did Bitcoin fall 32% in the first half of 2026?

Three factors combined: spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded their first half-year net outflow of $5.4 billion; massive capital rotation to high-earning AI stocks; and the Fed's monetary policy expectations turning hawkish. Bitcoin retreated over 50% from its all-time high of $126k at the end of 2025.

Q: Why did Bitcoin break above $64,000 on July 7?

In the early hours of July 7 (Beijing time), long-sided whales launched a surprise attack, pushing Bitcoin strongly above the $63,000 resistance. The rally triggered dense short stop-loss orders above, creating a chain-reaction "short squeeze." Total liquidations across the market in the past 4 hours reached $160 million, with short liquidations accounting for $112 million. On-chain data also showed that selling pressure from long-term holders had significantly eased.

Q: Why did gold crash in the first half of 2026?

Spot gold in London fell nearly 30% from its January all-time high of $5,598 per ounce to below $4,000. The decline followed a complete transmission cycle of "geopolitical premium surge → energy inflation backlash → tightening monetary policy expectations." Combined with capital diversion to AI and a stronger dollar, gold's safe-haven properties almost completely failed in the first half.

Q: Which assets could become winners in the second half of 2026?

NVIDIA's forward P/E ratio is only about 22x, and it will launch its first independent CPU this fall; valuation repair paired with new business catalysts could drive it to outperform again. In crypto, if the Fed keeps rates unchanged in July and ETF outflows reverse, Bitcoin could find some breathing room. However, all projections depend on actual macro liquidity and corporate earnings delivery.