Let's check out Polymarket's World Cup report today, and briefly talk about two matches.

🇵🇹 Portugal 0:1 Spain 🇪🇸
This match was very popular, with a final trading volume reaching $54.65 million. Both sides played cautiously in the first half, with neither scoring. In the second half, Spain seized an opportunity and broke the deadlock with an efficient attack, then held onto that score. At the moment of the goal, the prediction market's trend flipped instantly, and Spain's win probability was bought up to 100%. With Portugal eliminated, Cristiano Ronaldo's last World Cup comes to an end here.
World Cup market entry:
🇺🇸 USA 1:4 Belgium 🇧🇪
This match also had a trading volume of $47.75 million. Belgium controlled the pace from the start, with many attacking options and consecutive goals. Although the US team pulled one back, the overall situation was basically irreversible. The market probabilities also swung step by step in Belgium's favor as the game progressed, and the matter was completely settled before the final whistle. That's how knockout matches work; the balance of power quickly manifests in the score and odds.
From these two matches today, it's clear that knockout games leave no room for error. On-paper strength and past matchups are just references. What truly decides the outcome is on-the-spot performance and those key goals. This also makes the fluctuations in the prediction market very direct and real.
The quarterfinals are coming up next. Who knows what kind of script and market movements await. Let's wait and see.