The Truth Behind the "Triple Sell-Off": Federal Reserve Turns Hawkish, AI Bubble, Stock and Bond Plummets Recently, investors have been shocked by this scene—on November 17, gold, US stocks, and Bitcoin all plummeted simultaneously. This is not a coincidence but the result of multiple factors colliding. **Federal Reserve's Hawkish Shift Breaks the Rate Cut Dream** First, Federal Reserve officials have taken turns sounding hawkish. The market had hoped for a 25 bps rate cut in December, but expectations have now been cut in half to 43%. This directly shatters the long-held assumption of a "dovish environment." Once rate cut expectations fade, high-valued assets supported by low interest rates begin to loosen. **Tech Giants' Financing Difficulties Expose AI Bubble** Next, the AI boom faces reality checks. The market is questioning whether the massive debt issuance by tech giants to support astronomical capital expenditures is justified. Amazon's cold reception to bond issuance is a signal—investors are gradually losing patience with the "burn money first, profit later" model. **Technical Indicators Confirm Trend Reversal** From the charts, the situation looks even more worrying—S&P 500, Dow Jones, and NASDAQ indices have all fallen below their 50-day moving averages, a typical sign of weakening trend. Bitcoin's 50-day moving average has even crossed below its 200-day moving average, forming the most ominous "death cross" in technical analysis. According to the latest data, Bitcoin is currently hovering around $87.32K, down 0.51% in 24 hours; Ethereum's 24-hour decline is 1.08%. These numbers reflect a gradual erosion of market confidence. **Experts Warn of Further Downside Potential** John Roque, Chief Technical Analyst at 22V Research, bluntly states that the NASDAQ could fall by as much as 8%. Jeff Mei, COO of BTSE, further notes that under the dual pressures of AI valuation doubts and uncertain rate cut prospects, Bitcoin's further decline is "inevitable." Quaglini of Hex Trust offers a more specific risk warning: "If the stock market continues to fall, Bitcoin could easily retest the $70,000 low." **Liquidity Struggles Worsen Downward Movement** The logic behind gold's decline is straightforward—losing investors are forced to liquidate gold holdings to offset stock losses. Michael Armbruster, Co-Founder of Altavest, points out that in the short term, gold will move in tandem with other risk assets, driven by liquidity constraints. **Portfolio Defensive Recommendations** Jeffrey Gundlach, Chief Investment Officer of DoubleLine Capital, offers a key suggestion: many assets are already highly overvalued, and investors should allocate about 20% of their portfolios to cash. This is not conservatism but necessary risk management—reserving ammunition for potentially larger corrections ahead. This correction is far from over. The synchronized decline across stocks, crypto, and commodities has just begun to reprice.

For me, ETH is that "familiar stranger" in the crypto world. Our relationship is complex. It is a mentor, opening the mysterious door to decentralized finance with smart contracts and DeFi; it is also a magic mirror, reflecting my greed, fear, and vulnerability amid market fluctuations. I once saw it as the key to financial freedom, dreaming of the future during the bullish frenzy; but in the cold winter of a bear market, I doubted whether it was just a glamorous code bubble. Now that the hype has faded, I would say I am not just "holding" it, but rather "observing" and "participating" in a massive social experiment. It is no longer just a cold number in my account, but a continuous question: what kind of financial system do we really need? Can trust be fully entrusted to algorithms? My relationship with ETH has evolved from simple speculation to a critical dance. I know the risks have never disappeared, but the vision of a value internet it has sparked remains fascinating. #加密市场小幅回暖 #