XRP News Today: The U.S. government shutdown and weakened expectations for Fed rate cuts put pressure on the market. Can ETF approval pump XRP out of the Bear Market?

Key Points:

Due to the U.S. government shutdown and weakened expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, market sentiment is under pressure, and XRP has fallen to a low point after the flash crash.

Franklin Templeton ( joined the ranks of Bitwise and Canary Funds, removing the delay provisions from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission ) SEC (, accelerating the issuance of the XRP spot ETF.

The long-term shutdown of the U.S. government may accelerate the launch of the XRP ETF under limited SEC regulation.

According to FXEmpire, on Tuesday, November 4, XRP fell to a low after the flash crash, while Bitcoin )BTC( briefly dropped below $100,000. The U.S. government shutdown has intensified concerns about the outlook for the U.S. economy, and the weakening expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December have also exacerbated overall pessimism. These adverse factors overshadow the growth in institutional demand and Ripple's expansion to ordinary consumers.

After a decline of 11.84% in October, XRP dropped another 11.19% in the first four trading days of November.

Franklin Templeton Files S-1 Amendment

Despite facing significant selling pressure in early November, ETF issuers are still pushing forward with the launch of the XRP spot ETF.

Franklin Templeton submitted an S-1 amendment to mitigate the impact of the U.S. government shutdown. The revised document states:

“This registration statement will become effective in accordance with Section 8)a( of the Securities Act of 1933.”

S-1 Form Previous Declaration:

“The registrant hereby amends this registration statement to postpone its effective date until the registrant submits further amendments, explicitly stating that this registration statement will thereafter become effective in accordance with Section 8)a( of the Securities Act of 1933, or until this registration statement becomes effective on the date determined by the Commission pursuant to the aforementioned Section 8)a(.”

ETF issuers strive to launch in November

Franklin Templeton, along with Bitwise and Canary Funds, has removed the “delayed amendment” clause that granted the SEC )SEC( the authority to issue spot ETFs. After the removal of the delayed amendment clause, ETF issuers can launch their ETFs after a 20-day waiting period.

On Wednesday, November 5, the U.S. government shutdown entered an unprecedented phase. On Tuesday, November 4, the Senate deadlock had lasted for 35 days, tying the previous record for a shutdown. The government shutdown has led to a staffing shortage at the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), causing delays in review and approval work.

The revision of Form S-1 may bring about a win-win situation: if the government shutdown continues, the issuer can launch an XRP spot ETF. At the same time, if the U.S. government reopens and the SEC raises no questions, the issuer can still launch the XRP spot ETF after the 20-day waiting period ends. If the U.S. government reopens, the SEC may avoid giving any issuers an advantage in gaining a first-mover advantage in the market.

However, if the deadlock in the U.S. Senate continues for another week, Canary Funds may become the first to launch a U.S. XRP spot ETF.

Eleanor Terrett, host and reporter of CryptoAmerica, previously shared the amended S-1 filing for the Canary Funds XRP ETF on October 30, stating:

“Assuming Nasdaq approves the 8-A filing, Canary's XRP ETF is expected to launch on November 13.”

Technical Outlook: Key Price Levels for XRP

Following a drop of 8.65% the previous day, XRP fell by 4.5% on Tuesday, November 4, closing at $2.2059. The token's performance aligns with the overall cryptocurrency market, which declined by 4.81%.

Following the 11.84% drop in October, this week's sell-off has pushed the token's trading price well below the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), indicating a strong downward momentum. However, certain events may trigger a rebound.

Key technical levels to pay attention to include:

Support levels: $2.2, $2.0, and $1.9.

50-day EMA resistance level: $2.6082.

200-day EMA resistance level: $2.5961.

Resistance levels: $2.35, $2.5, $2.62, $2.8, $3.0, and $3.66.

Catalysts to Watch for in Future Trading Days

In the short term, the following key events may affect price trends:

U.S. Senate vote.

XRP spot ETF (delay or launch) and BlackRock's attitude towards the iShares XRP Trust.

The demand for XRP as a treasury reserve asset by blue-chip companies.

Regulatory Milestone: Ripple applies for a U.S. charter bank license, and news related to the market structure bill and SWIFT may also impact short-term price trends.

Bearish Scenario: Risk of Falling Below $2.2

BlackRock has canceled its plan to launch an XRP spot ETF.

The U.S. government shutdown continues, causing the launch of the XRP spot ETF to be delayed.

The U.S. Senate has raised questions about cryptocurrency-friendly legislation, including the “Market Structure Bill.”

Blue-chip companies do not consider XRP as a treasury reserve asset.

The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency )OCC( has postponed or denied Ripple's application for a national bank charter in the United States.

SWIFT has maintained its market share in the global remittance sector, limiting Ripple's market access.

These bearish events could cause XRP to fall below $2.2, thereby exposing the psychological support level of $2.0. If this support level is broken, the next key support level will be the low of $1.9112 from June 2025.

The descending channel shows that the token tested the upward trend line multiple times at the beginning of October. However, XRP failed to break through the upper resistance level, leading to a price drop.

The highs are continuously lowering, which is a bearish signal. The pullbacks in October and early November tested the buying demand for XRP near the downward trend line. If it breaks below this trend line, XRP could drop to around the psychological support level of 2 dollars. Please refer to the image below.

Bullish Scenario: The Path to $3 Remains Challenging

The U.S. government has reopened, and the staff of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission )SEC( has returned to work.

BlackRock submits S-1 filing for iShares XRP Trust, XRP spot ETF listed.

Blue-chip companies are purchasing XRP for treasury reserve purposes, and the general public is also beginning to adopt Ripple technology.

Ripple has obtained a chartered banking license in the United States, and the U.S. Senate has passed the Market Structure Bill.

If XRP can hold the low of $2.0677 on November 4, it may retest the resistance level of $2.35. A breakout above $2.35 could signal a reversal of the bearish trend, paving the way for $2.5.

Outlook: Long-term bullish outlook remains solid

![XRP Price Prediction])https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-87a9b3933a-6d6fa053e2-153d09-cd5cc0.webp(

The recent trend of XRP mainly depends on the U.S. government shutdown, the launch of spot ETFs, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook.

Despite the recent weakening of interest rate cut expectations, the rekindled speculative sentiment may boost market demand after the launch of the XRP spot ETF, potentially driving the XRP price to new highs.

Traders should also closely monitor the progress of the Market Structure Bill on Capitol Hill. Legislation favorable to cryptocurrencies could trigger a broader market rally. However, given the price movements of XRP after the House passed the bill, XRP may become a major beneficiary. On July 17, influenced by the House voting results, XRP soared by 14.69%, while Bitcoin only increased by 0.39%.