Goldman Sachs: Even if the U.S. Supreme Court rules that Trump's tariffs are illegal, the impact on the overall trade situation will be limited

Deep潮 TechFlow News: On November 6th, Goldman Sachs noted that during oral arguments, several U.S. Supreme Court justices expressed doubts about Trump’s exercise of authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. This suggests that the Supreme Court is increasingly likely to rule that the government’s use of emergency powers to impose tariffs is unconstitutional. Market forecasts now indicate about a 10 percentage point decrease in the probability that the Supreme Court will uphold the tariffs. The final ruling is expected to be announced between December 2025 and January 2026. If the Supreme Court rules the tariffs illegal, the government may need several months to refund approximately $115 billion to $145 billion in tariffs already collected. However, the government is likely to seek other legal grounds to reimpose similar tariffs, meaning the overall trade impact will remain limited. Any tariff reductions may only apply to smaller trading partners, with little expected change for major economies like the European Union. Nonetheless, refund processes and temporary tariff gaps could trigger short-term market volatility. (Jin10)