#美联储降息预测

High Probability of Rate Cut Already Priced In, Beware of “Buy the Rumor, Sell the News” 📉

The market has already priced in about a 25BP rate cut (CME data ~84%). Therefore, if the cut happens as expected, short-term sentiment may quickly be exhausted, leading to profit-taking and a possible pullback after a brief rally. Whether a true rebound can be sustained depends on Powell’s guidance regarding the future path—if dovish signals are released (such as hinting at further cuts in the first half of next year), risk assets could see medium-term support; if the tone is cautious, the market may enter a period of consolidation.

Recent Trading Strategy:

1. Before the rate cut: Avoid chasing highs; consider gradually building small hedged positions (e.g., set buy orders for ETH/USDT on dips);
2. After the decision: If there’s a sharp rally, consider partial profit-taking; if a “sell the news” pullback occurs, gradually buy back at key supports (e.g., BTC $41k–$42k, ETH $2,200–$2,300);
3. Trend confirmation: If Powell is explicitly dovish, shift to trending positions; if hawkish, reduce exposure and wait for new catalysts.

Market volatility often increases in the early stage of a macro policy shift, so it’s advisable to manage your position size and maintain ample liquidity to handle choppy conditions. In the long run, the start of a rate cut cycle still favors the liquidity environment for the crypto market. 🌊