Flandreau
#美联储降息预测
High Probability of Rate Cut Already Priced In, Beware of “Buy the Rumor, Sell the News” 📉
The market has already priced in about a 25BP rate cut (CME data ~84%). Therefore, if the cut happens as expected, short-term sentiment may quickly be exhausted, leading to profit-taking and a possible pullback after a brief rally. Whether a true rebound can be sustained depends on Powell’s guidance regarding the future path—if dovish signals are released (such as hinting at further cuts in the first half of next year), risk assets could see medium-term support; if the tone is cautious, the ma
View OriginalHigh Probability of Rate Cut Already Priced In, Beware of “Buy the Rumor, Sell the News” 📉
The market has already priced in about a 25BP rate cut (CME data ~84%). Therefore, if the cut happens as expected, short-term sentiment may quickly be exhausted, leading to profit-taking and a possible pullback after a brief rally. Whether a true rebound can be sustained depends on Powell’s guidance regarding the future path—if dovish signals are released (such as hinting at further cuts in the first half of next year), risk assets could see medium-term support; if the tone is cautious, the ma


