Asian-Pacific stock markets declined across the board, following the downturn of US stocks last Friday. The Shanghai Composite and Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by similar margins, while the Hang Seng Index and Nasdaq declined accordingly. However, gold and US stock futures rose during Asian trading hours, and the dollar weakened—indicating that the selling pressure triggered last Friday by hawkish Fed officials' remarks has eased, and the market will soon shift focus to non-farm payroll data. The decline in Asia-Pacific markets does not signify a new wave of panic but is a "passive alignment with US stocks" (risk appetite being calibrated), essentially still a time zone effect. Today, Asia-Pacific is merely completing a "catch-up decline" and has not experienced emotional acceleration or liquidity footfalls. The current market is "holding back emotions, waiting for a bullet to land"—non-farm payrolls, not Fed speeches. What Fed officials say now is just short-term noise; non-farm payrolls are the variable that can "determine market fate." Non-farm payrolls will decide three things: · First, whether the expectations of rate cuts in January and March are re-elevated; · Second, whether US Treasury yields are a "false breakout" or a "genuine retreat"; · Third, whether risk assets will enter a "high-level oscillation" or "another round of risk release." The core institutional forecast is roughly as follows: October: +10,000 November: +55,000 (slightly above market expectations) The three-month average: around +60,000. Over the past few years, this pace can only be considered "not recession," but definitely not booming. Compared to employment numbers, the Fed cares about two things: · Unemployment rate, expected to slightly rise to 4.5% in November. Not a jump, but a "gradual increase." This aligns with a typical feature: the labor market is cooling but very slowly. · Wages, expected to rise 0.3% in October and 0.35% in November. Wages are not out of control nor collapsing. For inflation, this is an "acceptable but uncomfortable" state. Powell said something in the recent press conference that was very informative: current non-farm payroll data may have "overestimated 60,000 jobs each month." From the Fed's "internal correction" perspective, the 50,000 figure you see might be close to zero in their view. From the Fed's perspective, the employment market may already be near "zero growth." This is a non-farm payroll report that "looks at structure, not numbers," and it is unlikely to provide evidence of an "imminent recession," but it also does not support the idea of "continued strength." It will still not give the market the certainty it desires and will remain in the phase of "Fed hesitation, market misjudgment."