#BTC Intraday Analysis

1️⃣ Structural Interpretation: Bitcoin experienced a continuous decline last night, with over a hundred million long positions liquidated. This is the first time since December 7th that it has returned near 85,000, and selling pressure in the market has sharply increased. The bearish force holds an absolute dominance. The market is evolving from a “bullish correction” to a “deep correction,” urgently requiring a new strong support zone to organize defense.
2️⃣ Capital Flow & On-Chain & Exchange Dynamics: Capital flow and macro factors indicate tightening market liquidity and declining risk appetite as core pressures. Analysts point out that even with the Federal Reserve's rate cut last week, digital asset momentum was not boosted, breaking the positive correlation with risk assets. This suggests that the current decline is mainly driven by internal structural selling pressure within the cryptocurrency market and concerns over liquidity. On-chain data: signals lean towards caution. Although capital flow remains active, the funding rate for perpetual contracts (CVD) has fallen below the lower limit, reflecting strong selling pressure. Meanwhile, declining transaction fees imply reduced demand for block space. Glassnode analysis suggests the market is in a consolidation phase, with unbalanced confidence, making further declines or prolonged sideways movement likely.
3️⃣ Intraday Trading Strategy: Before breaking above 90,000, avoid going long in the short term. If the price reaches 95,000-96,000 and shows clear signs of stagnation such as double tops or bearish engulfing candles, indicating weakness, consider short positions. Place stop-loss if the 96,000 level breaks below the candle body, near 85,000. If a strong breakout above 96,000 occurs, look towards 102,000. When strong bullish reversal patterns appear on the hourly chart around 84,500-83,800 (such as Morning Star or bullish engulfing) with significantly increased volume, small positions can be considered for technical rebounds.
4️⃣ Risk Warning: Liquidity depletion risk: Low market turnover, and in panic sentiment, any large sell order could trigger an unexpected “flash crash,” causing stop-loss failures. Emotional selling spread: A 30% retracement from the high has triggered significant investor losses, potentially leading to irrational panic selling and continuous price breakdowns. Decoupling risk from macro markets: Bitcoin has recently failed to rebound along with other risk assets, indicating its independent weakness, which may imply unpriced endogenous risks.