BTC bull market peaked at 126k, then the market entered a bear market. Starting from the bottom at 154K in November 2022, BTC's cycle period is now 4 years. Many believe that this round of correction will be broken, and the market will quickly enter the next bull phase. My view is that this scenario is impossible. Whether from wave theory structure analysis or technical indicator adjustments, a large cycle structural adjustment cannot be completed in just three or two months; it will take at least half a year to a year. Based on chip distribution, the market has experienced a process of bottom concentration, top dispersion, completion of transfer, and reallocation. To restart a bull market, the market must undergo a process of chip re-concentration, which cannot be completed in a short time without enough time and downward space. Structurally, the current market is merely a large B wave rebound during a decline. There will still be a large C wave downward to complete the entire bear market correction structure. The main theme moving forward is a prolonged bear market with significant declines and small rebounds, with lower highs, rather than a short-term reversal pattern.