The RMB against the USD hits a new high this year! Goldman Sachs forecasts it will rise to 6.85 by 2026, with internationalization becoming the policy focus.

Exchange Rate Data Refresh Record

Recently, news about the “appreciation” of the Renminbi has frequently occupied financial headlines. As of November 26, the onshore USD/RMB exchange rate fell to 7.0824, and the offshore USD/RMB fell to 7.0779, both hitting new lows not seen in over a year. Earlier, the CFETS Renminbi Exchange Rate Index rose to 98.22 on November 21, reaching its highest level since April this year. These figures reflect a clear trend: the Renminbi is appreciating.

Decomposition of the Appreciation Logic

Why is the Renminbi appreciating? Two forces are at work. On one hand, the Federal Reserve has entered a rate-cut cycle, reducing the attractiveness of the US dollar, which strengthens the Renminbi relative to the dollar. On the other hand, domestic policies are actively guiding this trend— the People’s Bank of China sets the daily midpoint rate consistently higher, and state-owned banks frequently buy US dollars to stabilize the exchange rate. These are not accidental moves.

Kelvin Lam, an economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, pointed out that from a broader strategic perspective, this reflects a policy intention: to establish international credibility by demonstrating the stability and strength of the Renminbi. This recalls the scene during the 1998 Asian financial crisis when the Renminbi refused to devalue and maintained its regional currency position.

Contrasting with Historical Benchmarks

The impact is even more pronounced. During the 2018 trade war, the Renminbi depreciated by about 5%. By 2025, however, the Renminbi has appreciated nearly 3%. This reverse change is not only a numerical difference but also reflects adjustments in China’s economic policy direction.

Kiyong Seong, Chief Asia Macro Strategist at Société Générale, believes that in times of global market turbulence, demonstrating the resilience and stability of the Renminbi provides an excellent window for advancing the internationalization of the Renminbi.

Reactions from the International Market

Data from the Bank for International Settlements speak volumes— the daily trading volume of USD/RMB has increased by nearly 60% since 2022, now reaching 781 billion USD, accounting for over 8% of total global foreign exchange trading. The increase in trading volume indicates growing interest among participants in the Renminbi.

Institutional Outlook on the Future

Goldman Sachs analysts have provided specific forecasts: considering the policy recognition of the Renminbi’s strength, the USD/RMB exchange rate may reach 7.0 by the end of the year, and further appreciate to 6.85 by 2026. The logic behind this is that the internationalization of the Renminbi has become a clear policy priority for the Chinese government, and this process is expected to accelerate significantly in the coming years.

In short, the appreciating Renminbi, rising trading volume, and elevated international status all point in the same direction: the door to Renminbi internationalization is opening.