Can gold soar to $6,000? 43% of central banks will still be buying next year, with the USD to gold exchange rate hitting a record high

Did you know? How fierce is this wave of international gold price rally—so far this year, it has skyrocketed over 70%. Last Wednesday, it even broke the $4,500 per ounce mark for the first time, hitting a new high since 1979. Using the “two” that Taiwanese investors are familiar with, gold that was about NT$105,000 at the beginning of the year has now surpassed NT$177,000. Early investors are already laughing happily.

Big Institutional Divergence: Will Gold Hit 6000 in 2026 or Fall Back to 3000?

The most interesting thing is that, regarding the future trend of gold prices, Wall Street’s opinions are dramatically divided:

Analyst Ed Yardeni boldly predicts a target of $6000; JPMorgan estimates it could break through $5000; Goldman Sachs is relatively conservative, thinking it might hover around $4900; but Citibank takes the opposite stance, suggesting that if geopolitical tensions ease, it could fall back to $3000.

Behind this phenomenon of “some call for sky-high prices, others for a crash,” reflects the market’s deep uncertainty about the future.

Central Banks Are the True Gold Enthusiasts: USD to Gold Ratio Creates a New Pattern

Don’t be fooled by retail investors arguing over gold price fluctuations; the real “big spenders” are actually central banks worldwide. According to the latest statistics from the World Gold Council, by the end of October, global central banks had accumulated a total of 254 tons of gold, with a net purchase of 53 tons in just one month—up 36% from the previous quarter.

More critically, surveys show that 43% of responding central banks plan to continue increasing their gold holdings over the next 12 months. This reflects a quiet revolution of “de-dollarization”—75% of institutions believe the share of USD in global foreign exchange reserves will further decline, with the renminbi, euro, and other currencies expected to rise in status.

Poland’s central bank bought 83 tons, leading the pack; Brazil restarted its gold purchase plan after four years and bought 31 tons within two months; Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan followed closely. Krishan Gopaul, senior researcher at WGC, straightforwardly states: “This is not short-term arbitrage, but a long-term strategy.”

Silver Rises Even More Fiercely: “Buying Silver Instead of Gold” Becomes a New Trend

Interestingly, among precious metals, silver has performed even more aggressively than gold—on the 23rd, it broke through $70 per ounce for the first time, with an annual increase of over 1.5 times; platinum soared 4% in a single day, breaking the $2300 mark, with an almost 1.6 times increase this year. As a result, a new voice has emerged: “Buying silver is better than buying gold.”

However, WGC Vice Chairman Shi Wenxin reminds that the entry barrier has significantly increased—buying small units of gold now costs over NT$2000, and with only NT$500, you might not even afford gold foil. For investment purposes, prioritize gold ETFs, savings accounts, or gold bars, and avoid being trapped by jewelry processing fees that can reduce the realized value.

Why Is Gold Price Soaring? Geopolitical Turmoil + USD Crisis

The driving forces behind this rally are quite clear: geopolitical upheavals (Middle East, Russia-Ukraine, US tariff policies), combined with central banks accelerating their de-dollarization strategies. Central banks buy gold to hedge against USD risks, which is vividly reflected in the USD-to-gold ratio— the weaker the dollar, the more attractive gold becomes.