Next week's market hinges on two key factors: the announcement of the Federal Reserve Chair nominee and the validation of GDP data. From a probability distribution perspective, Kevin Hasset's 54% winning probability has already formed a strong market expectation, indicating that market pricing logic is relatively clear—favoring a more moderate policy tone. However, the real trading opportunities lie in the performance of the Q3 initial GDP estimate and core PCE data.

If the actual data exceeds expectations, it could undermine the logic of rate cut expectations; conversely, it would further reinforce easing expectations. From an on-chain capital perspective, recent large transfers and the pace of inflows and outflows on exchanges will be quite critical. The liquidity contraction during the Christmas holiday itself amplifies risk, and the early market close on Wednesday and full-day closure on Thursday will make market sentiment more prone to extreme fluctuations.

Key points to watch: First, the movements of major players before and after Tuesday's GDP release; second, changes in capital flows on exchanges during macro data releases—which often reflect institutional attitudes. In the short term, uncertainty converges around Tuesday; the prudent approach is to wait for the data before making directional judgments, rather than rushing ahead.