SuckersNeverBowTheirHeads.

#比特币价格与估值 Noticed an interesting technical signal—BTC dropped from the October high of 126K to November 84K, and the RSI indicator fell below 30 into the oversold zone. Historical data shows that since 2023, this situation has occurred 5 times, each time followed by an upward trend.
Based on macro research retrospection, if the pattern continues, BTC could challenge 170K within three months. From on-chain fund flow perspective, the inflow trajectory of crypto ETFs is indeed quite positive, with major traditional financial institutions gradually entering the market. Negative sentiment mainly s

#通胀与货币政策 Seeing the US margin debt surge to $1.21 trillion in November, marking seven consecutive months of increase, this signal is worth paying attention to. The most striking data is the ratio of margin debt to M2 skyrocketing to 5.5%, surpassing the levels seen during the internet bubble in 2000.
Let's break down the logic behind this: Although the Federal Reserve is in a rate-hiking cycle, market leverage appetite remains strong. The 43% increase over just seven months indicates investors are continuously leveraging up. This behavior typically occurs in two scenarios—either market sentim

Next week's market hinges on two key factors: the announcement of the Federal Reserve Chair nominee and the validation of GDP data. From a probability distribution perspective, Kevin Hasset's 54% winning probability has already formed a strong market expectation, indicating that market pricing logic is relatively clear—favoring a more moderate policy tone. However, the real trading opportunities lie in the performance of the Q3 initial GDP estimate and core PCE data.
If the actual data exceeds expectations, it could undermine the logic of rate cut expectations; conversely, it would further rei

#预测市场 The doubts surrounding Polymarket are worth paying attention to. Trump claims a sales volume of $1.3 billion, but the core criteria used by the prediction platform are quite clear: it must be "final approval + payment completed" to count. Based on current information, this figure remains more at the promise stage, with a gap in the payment verification process.
On Polymarket, the prediction that "sales volume is zero" has a probability of up to 89%, reflecting the market's skepticism about the authenticity of the data. Participants in such prediction platforms usually cast votes with fu

#比特币价格预测 Recently, a clear signal has emerged from monitoring data on mining companies: this downturn is not an isolated phenomenon but a systemic pressure. The litigation risk for Bitdeer, the underwhelming profits of CleanSpark, and TeraWulf's stock price weakening after financing—all point to the same issue: the market's expectations for the crypto ecosystem are being revised.
The key variables are policy uncertainty and legislative delays. When the macro environment is ambiguous like this, institutional investors tend to adopt a wait-and-see approach, and even new product launches by Coin

The data from the Brazilian market this wave is worth paying attention to. The 43% increase in trading volume looks promising, but more importantly, the structural changes—average investment exceeding $1,000 and 18% of users beginning to diversify assets—indicate a shift from pure speculation to structured investing.
The threefold growth in stablecoin trading volume strongly indicates this trend. Under macro uncertainties, users are seeking low-volatility hedges, which is a typical signal of a risk asset adjustment period. Meanwhile, a 108% increase in low-risk crypto products, along with infl

#比特币价格预测 After reviewing Wintermute's analysis, the 86K-92K range indeed aligns with the current on-chain signal characteristics. The year-end portfolio adjustments and tax considerations add to the short-term profit-taking pressure, which is also confirmed by the data on exchange fund inflows—whale wallet outflows have been quite evident over the past two weeks.
However, it is worth noting the large-scale options expiration in late December, which could serve as a catalyst for breaking through the range. The current oversold condition does exist, but more confirmation signals are needed to d

#加密货币监管立法 The key resistance points for Bitcoin's recent decline are actually quite clear: legislative progress has been hindered, compounded by forced liquidations, exposing the fragility of the funding environment. Looking at MicroStrategy's stock performance can give a true sense of market sentiment— the positive outlook of continuous Bitcoin accumulation is completely offset by concerns over equity dilution, indicating that institutional buying momentum is indeed waning.
What’s more worth noting is the decline in global risk appetite. The underperformance of the US stock AI sector, weaken

#预测市场平台 The public sale mechanism of Space is worth paying attention to. Looking at the core parameters—FDV rising linearly from 50 million to 99 million, adopting a variable token distribution model—this price discovery mechanism is more transparent compared to traditional fixed prices, but it also means that the costs for later entrants will gradually increase.
From an on-chain perspective, several key signals stand out: First, the $3 million funding background plus Echo platform's 1360% oversubscription indicate that market enthusiasm definitely exists; second, the flywheel design of 50% p

#预测市场 Polymarket's data continues to refresh my understanding. The probability of Bitcoin surpassing 100,000 within the year has dropped from a high level to 11%. What is driving this shift? Narrowing time windows is one factor, but more importantly, the actual market sentiment—32% for the 95,000 prediction and 24% for the probability of dropping below 80,000—indicates that market expectations for sideways movement and corrections are increasing.
The advantage of these prediction market data lies in their real incentives and constraints. Compared to traditional polls, where lying incurs an ec

#AI交易应用 CZ's statement touches on the core contradiction of AI trading applications—that's precisely the question I've been pondering frequently when tracking fund flows on-chain recently.
The logic is clear: if an AI algorithm is truly profitable, why package it as a service to sell to others? If a strategy is effective enough, raising funds for a high-quality team is no longer a challenge, and the profit ceiling from personal trading far exceeds subscription revenue. This means that most AI trading products on the market are essentially selling users a "suboptimal solution."
A deeper issue

#资产代币化 Cornell University's research data is worth a look. The market capitalization of stablecoins has surged, yet bank deposits have not experienced the large-scale outflows expected—this underlying economic logic is quite clear: deposit stickiness is far more resilient than imagined.
The reason users don't move their savings to digital wallets for just a few basis points of additional yield is fundamentally due to the high convenience cost of "bundled services." Mortgages, direct salary deposits, and credit card bills are all tied to checking accounts, and the friction caused by this bundl

#比特币价格走势 Looking at the latest data from Polymarket, the probability of BTC rising back to $100,000 within the year has dropped to 11%, and this signal is worth paying attention to. In comparison, the probability of reaching $95,000 is still 32%, while the chance of falling below $80,000 is 24% — market divergence is indeed widening.
From an on-chain capital flow perspective, this downward shift in probabilities usually reflects adjustments in large investors' expectations. As the one-year time window gradually narrows, market pricing often adjusts the optimistic scenarios accordingly. The cu

#比特币技术分析 Weekly RSI drops to 35, which is an extremely oversold level since January 2023. Historically, during that time, BTC price was in the 15,500-17,000 range, whereas now it has reached 80,500. From a data perspective, the Stochastic RSI indicates the deepest oversold level in the cycle, and the short-term rebound probability is indeed increasing.
However, it is important to note that oversold conditions do not necessarily mean a bottom. Looking at the BTC/NASDAQ 100 ratio, although it is close to the historical bottoming area, mean reversion requires policy support—variables like quanti

#AI与加密货币结合 The AVA case is worth paying attention to. 23 wallets concentrated to snatch 40% of the supply at launch, with the source of funds pointing to large transfers from Bitget and Binance. The timing was very tight—funds were deposited just before the launch, and immediate buying occurred at release. This is a typical internal coordination sniping pattern.
Looking at the data logic: the deployer’s associated wallet cluster, pre-arranged funds, and precise timing execution—this level of coordination is beyond what retail FOMO can achieve. The issue is that such operations expose two risk

#美联储流动性政策 The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in January has reached 75.6%, and this data point is quite significant. From a liquidity perspective, the market is pricing in a relatively stable policy expectation—there is less room for rate cuts in the short term, but there is still a 44.4% chance of a cumulative 25bp decrease by March.
What does this mean? The certainty of liquidity conditions is increasing. I have been tracking recent movements of whale wallets and found that large holders are beginning to adjust their positions in the context of clarified liqui

#稳定币市场发展 Recently revisiting the Cornell study, I have gained a clearer understanding of the relationship between stablecoins and bank deposits through data.
The core logic is quite straightforward: stablecoins have not triggered a large-scale outflow of deposits, and this fact alone overturns the panic rhetoric of the past few years. The underlying reason is that the "sticky deposits" constraint remains strong—mortgages, credit cards, direct salary payments, and this binding mechanism make the flow cost of consumer funds much higher than we initially expected.
But the truly noteworthy change

#加密货币监管政策 The SEC issues a "No-Action Letter" to DTC, and the market interpretations vary widely. Many people get excited when they see "permitting tokenization," thinking that 24/7 trading of US stocks is just around the corner. But a careful reading of the document reveals that things are not that simple.
The core logic is: the SEC has only exempted certain procedural reporting obligations during DTC's pilot phase, and has not granted substantive permission for the application of tokenization technology in the securities market. There is a key distinction here — DTC is not directly issuing

#AI与加密货币结合 Coinbase's 2026 outlook report highlights key signals worth dissecting. The proposal of the "DAT 2.0" model indicates a shift in institutional participation logic—from passive asset allocation to active trading, custody, and gaining access to the blockchain space. This means the complexity of on-chain capital flows will significantly increase.
More importantly, the integration of AI and crypto is explicitly listed as a major direction. Automated agents on the chain will change the rhythm and patterns of capital inflows and outflows, posing new challenges for tracking whale movement

#空投活动 The timing and reward structure of Aster's Phase 4 airdrop are worth paying attention to. Qualification check-in opens on January 14, the claiming window opens on January 28, but the core lies in the design of the vesting period — claiming immediately yields only 50%, and full 100% is available after three months.
From an on-chain perspective, this locking mechanism typically has two intentions: first, to filter genuine holders; second, to control the release pace of token liquidity. The destruction of unclaimed tokens is also worth monitoring, as it will affect the expected final circu