#通胀与货币政策 Seeing the US margin debt surge to $1.21 trillion in November, marking seven consecutive months of increase, this signal is worth paying attention to. The most striking data is the ratio of margin debt to M2 skyrocketing to 5.5%, surpassing the levels seen during the internet bubble in 2000.

Let's break down the logic behind this: Although the Federal Reserve is in a rate-hiking cycle, market leverage appetite remains strong. The 43% increase over just seven months indicates investors are continuously leveraging up. This behavior typically occurs in two scenarios—either market sentiment is extremely optimistic, or investors are forced to leverage up to maintain their positions. Considering the current macro environment, both are possible.

From an on-chain perspective, such a surge in macro leverage often triggers two chain reactions: first, large funds pre-position for potential "risk release" timing; second, institutions begin adjusting their risk exposure. Recent movements in whale wallets and changes in contract holdings structure can partially confirm whether market participants have already sensed this pressure.

If leverage continues to rise without corresponding fundamental support, the risk of a pullback will gradually accumulate. This is not prophecy, just the data laid out there.