#比特币价格与估值 Noticed an interesting technical signal—BTC dropped from the October high of 126K to November 84K, and the RSI indicator fell below 30 into the oversold zone. Historical data shows that since 2023, this situation has occurred 5 times, each time followed by an upward trend.

Based on macro research retrospection, if the pattern continues, BTC could challenge 170K within three months. From on-chain fund flow perspective, the inflow trajectory of crypto ETFs is indeed quite positive, with major traditional financial institutions gradually entering the market. Negative sentiment mainly stems from the anticipation of a four-year cycle and the concentrated release of market crash risks. Once these pressures are digested, the rebound momentum will be relatively strong.

However, it’s important to remain calm—such predictions are based on the assumption of historical pattern repetition, and market variables will always exceed model predictions. Currently, more worth tracking are the movements of whale accounts within this range, the fund flow of large transactions, and whether ETF net inflows can remain steady. The certainty of short-term upward movement is not as high as the certainty of long-term institutional adoption; it is recommended to focus on monitoring institutional allocation progress rather than solely on price targets.