#比特币价格预测 Seeing Galaxy's forecast, my first reaction is not excitement but caution. $250,000 sounds very tempting, but the key is to understand what these numbers are really saying.

The pricing logic in the options market is quite interesting—by the end of 2026, the probability of dropping to $50,000 or rising to $250,000 is "close," which indicates what? It shows that the market is fundamentally uncertain. Such an extremely wide price range is not a positive signal; rather, it reflects a high level of uncertainty. I have experienced many times that when analysts give a "long-term bullish" outlook but the short-term is highly ambiguous, it often means there will be intense volatility in the middle.

2026 is described as "chaotic" and "boring," and these two words are very important. Boring trends are usually accompanied by continuous declines or consolidations, which can be deadly for those without psychological preparation—because you will keep doubting whether your holdings are correct. Moreover, macro-level uncertainties are increasing, with variables like AI capital expenditure and monetary policy currently being black boxes.

One point I agree with—Bitcoin's volatility structure is decreasing, and put options are priced higher than call options, reflecting increased market maturity. But increased maturity does not mean risk disappears; it just makes risks more hidden. Institutional entry has indeed changed the game rules, but we also need to be cautious about when they might exit.

My straightforward advice: don't be fooled by the $250,000 in 2027 and make reckless moves in 2026. If you want to participate, first ask yourself if you can withstand a drop back to $50,000. If not, now is the time to think clearly about how to allocate your positions. The secret to longevity is not to place the biggest bets when uncertainty is at its lowest.