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#比特币机构建仓 Seeing MicroStrategy's stock price weaken due to concerns over equity dilution, I am reminded of the days when the concept of "institutional accumulation" blinded people's eyes. The decline of Bitcoin is not driven by some mysterious whale manipulation, but by real market forces at play—forced liquidations, legislative hurdles, global policy uncertainties—all of which are tangible risk factors.
The most ironic thing is that retail investors who followed the trend and bought in back then are still waiting for "institutional support," unaware that even large institutions are worried ab

#美联储利率政策 The Federal Reserve has started pumping liquidity again, injecting 38 billion over 10 days, and today they will add another 6.8 billion. When I saw this news, my first reaction was not celebration but a warning bell.
This is the lesson I’ve learned in the crypto world—every time easing policies are announced, the market starts to tell stories. Whether it's "ample liquidity benefits risk assets" or "the Fed’s bottom line to support the market," all kinds of voices flood in, and FOMO emotions are instantly amplified. But the real question is, will this money truly flow to us? Or will i

#市场调整与情绪 Seeing the news that miner hash rate has dropped by 4%, my first reaction isn't excitement but to calm down and think about those "bottoms" in the past.
This kind of contrarian indicator does have some reference value—VanEck's data shows that after a hash rate decline, the probability of positive returns over the next 90 days is 65%, with an average increase of 72% over 180 days. It sounds promising. But I want to remind you that behind these impressive numbers, there is often a harsh reality: bottom confirmation is always a post-hoc analysis.
Anyone who has gone through several cycl

#稳定币 Seeing the stablecoin supply grow 50% year-over-year reminds me of the "wealth management talk" from a few years ago. Back then, high-yield promises were everywhere. And what happened? Projects collapsed one after another, ultimately hurting those of us seeking stable returns.
Now, with $20 billion allocated to interest-bearing stablecoins, the logic is a bit different this time. Leverage has been cleared, and the market is shifting from pure speculation to balance sheet-driven—simply put, it’s about real asset backing rather than stories and FOMO hype. This kind of shift is actually goo

#稳定币生态 Looking at the recent moves in the stablecoin ecosystem, I have to be honest. Tether launching an AI wallet, Velo integrating USD1, new exchange contracts—on the surface, it seems lively, but the underlying logic is worth pondering.
Anyone who has experienced several cycles understands that the expansion of the stablecoin ecosystem often comes with two possibilities: one is genuine infrastructure improvement, and the other is the prelude to a liquidity trap. My observation is, when you see leading platforms simultaneously deploying across multiple dimensions—wallets, protocols, trading

#永续合约交易 Perpetual contracts have recently seen shocking liquidation data—$195 million in 24 hours, with both longs and shorts being wiped out. Watching contracts like $LIGHT surge 4x in a day and then quickly crash back down reminds me of the losses I suffered in futures trading back in the day.
The key point is the operational logic. BTC repeatedly hits resistance at 90,000-90,500, indicating that institutions are positioning here, but retail traders can't see through it. You must understand that the destructive power of contracts lies in leverage amplifying all emotions. When prices reach c

#RWA代币化业务 Seeing the recent moves by BitMine, I need to calm down and share some honest thoughts. Holding 4 million ETH and $13.2 billion in assets is truly shocking, but the question is—when big institutions are aggressively increasing their holdings, does that really mean we should follow suit?
Here’s my reflection after experiencing some pitfalls: an increase in institutional holdings is often packaged as a positive signal, but what are they really doing? Accumulating chips. They have enough funds, patience, and influence to drive market narratives, hype up new concepts like RWA tokenizati

#预测市场 Seeing this Polymarket copycat bot, I have to say: this is exactly why we should stay cautious of "convenience" tools.
Developers repeatedly commit code on GitHub, deliberately hiding malicious packages to steal private keys — this is nothing new. But this time, they’re riding the hype of prediction markets to lure users. Imagine you just wanted to automate copying trades to make quick money, and the moment the program starts, it reads your .env file, exposing your wallet private key directly. Those seemingly clever "shortcuts" are often the easiest traps.
Having navigated the blockchai

#稳定币发展与应用 Seeing Galaxy's forecast that by 2026, stablecoin trading volume may surpass the US ACH system, I find myself more cautious. It sounds impressive, but the risks behind it are worth careful consideration.
Anyone who has experienced multiple cycles understands what is often hidden behind the prosperity of stablecoins—massive increases in trading volume usually mean leverage is being piled up, and funds are chasing volatility. The "huge fluctuations" of Bitcoin in 2026 and the surge in stablecoin trading volume, these two things are essentially linked by speculative sentiment fermentin

#比特币价格预测 Seeing Arthur Hayes again bullish on Bitcoin, I have to say—I've heard this logic too many times before. QE, liquidity easing, fiat devaluation... Every cycle, someone uses these reasons to paint a rosy picture. $124,000, $200,000—these numbers sound impressive, but what I care more about is that he quietly transferred 508 ETH to an exchange yesterday.
This is the first lesson I learned: just listen, and watch where their money goes. When a big influencer is shouting about gains while selling off, that action is much more honest than words.
I'm not saying his analysis is completely w

#RWA代币化 DWF Labs completes the news of gold trading looks great, but I have to pour some cold water. The most common pitfall in projects like RWA is: it sounds solid as an asset, but the actual risks are all on-chain.
Think about it, once physical gold is on the chain, the key questions arise—who will custody these 25 kilograms of gold bars? How to ensure audit transparency? How to avoid the risk of decoupling between token price and gold price? Historically, many projects have claimed to be backed by "real assets," only for the funding chain to break and tokens to go to zero.
I've seen many

#比特币机构采用与储备 Seeing the recent moves by Metaplanet, I have to say a few words. Holding 30,823 Bitcoins and $2.75 billion in assets, this is indeed an institutional-level move, but the key is not in the numbers themselves, rather in how they play the game.
Dividend preferred stocks, monthly floating dividends, quarterly regular distributions—basically, they are using traditional financial instruments to "dress up" Bitcoin assets. This is indeed friendly to institutions, but for retail investors, it's crucial to understand what you're actually buying. Preferred stocks have their risks, especiall

#永续合约市场 How deep is the water in the perpetual contract market? After seeing Hyperliquid's recent clarification, I was reminded of the pitfalls I've encountered over the years.
Honestly, when a platform needs to refute accusations like "under-collateralized," "market manipulation," or "hidden lending" one by one, the first reaction of a normal person is to be cautious. But upon closer inspection of this clarification, there are several details worth noting — they laid out the total USDC supply, on-chain data, governance mechanisms, and even promised decentralization and open-source by 2025. T

#RWA代币化 Seeing DWF Labs working on physical gold tokenization, I have to throw some cold water on it. The test transaction of 25 kilograms of gold bars sounds smooth, but that's exactly when it's easiest to be fooled.
Ten years ago, I was also dazzled by various "breakthrough" projects—like "first successful transaction" or "soon entering a certain market." They all sound impressive. But projects that truly survive never hype themselves during the first test transaction. What should raise suspicion is: the very pace of this kind of promotion.
RWA tokenization sounds promising; putting physica

#预测市场发展 Seeing the news that Trump's card sales reached 1.3 billion USD, my first reaction was to think of the number games I've seen in the crypto world over the years. A sales figure of 1.3 billion sounds impressive, but the doubts raised by Polymarket hit the key point — "final approval and payment completed" is what counts, not just a simple sales promise.
This pattern is all too familiar. The numbers reported by project teams often include pre-orders, deposits, and amounts not actually received, making the figures look large, but the actual completion rate might only be around 30%. The p

#稳定币应用与发展 Seeing the news that Huabei has downgraded the target prices for crypto stocks, I have to say a few words. This is quite typical—the Wall Street crowd is bearish on one hand, while quietly positioning on the other. Circle's target price has dropped from $243 to now $83, and MicroStrategy from $485 to $325. It looks fierce, but upon closer reflection, it actually indicates that institutions are shifting their chips.
I've been cut many times, and the deepest lesson I've learned is: don't be fooled by institutions' downgrades and bearish outlooks. Their target price cuts are often to l

#链上支付 After analyzing this wave of stablecoins, it reminded me of the past. Back then, I was also captivated by the grand narrative of "decentralized financial democratization," believing that blockchain could break the monopoly of banks. But what is the reality? Bitcoin's volatility became too fierce, turning it into a speculative asset, and stablecoins emerged, yet they are now tied to central banks and large corporations.
Ironically, stablecoins do solve real problems—making cross-border payments cheaper and more efficient. But at the same time, they reveal a deeper paradox: to achieve sta

#比特币价格预测 Seeing Galaxy's forecast, my first reaction is not excitement but caution. $250,000 sounds very tempting, but the key is to understand what these numbers are really saying.
The pricing logic in the options market is quite interesting—by the end of 2026, the probability of dropping to $50,000 or rising to $250,000 is "close," which indicates what? It shows that the market is fundamentally uncertain. Such an extremely wide price range is not a positive signal; rather, it reflects a high level of uncertainty. I have experienced many times that when analysts give a "long-term bullish" ou

#代币化资产 Seeing the hype around Lighter's funding, I need to calmly analyze this market trend. The valuation benchmark of $3 billion to $4.2 billion, derived from Polymarket and pre-market prices, sounds very professional, but that's exactly where I tend to get caught.
These types of funding news are most likely to create FOMO, especially when various KOLs start predicting "optimistic expectations of 7.5 to 12.5 billion." I've seen too many stories like this—high funding enthusiasm, valuation predictions repeatedly upgraded, only to find out after launch that liquidity and real demand are compl