#预测市场发展 Seeing the news that Trump's card sales reached 1.3 billion USD, my first reaction was to think of the number games I've seen in the crypto world over the years. A sales figure of 1.3 billion sounds impressive, but the doubts raised by Polymarket hit the key point — "final approval and payment completed" is what counts, not just a simple sales promise.

This pattern is all too familiar. The numbers reported by project teams often include pre-orders, deposits, and amounts not actually received, making the figures look large, but the actual completion rate might only be around 30%. The prediction market giving an 89% probability that "this year's sales will be zero" isn't denying the project itself, but pointing out — the likelihood of the money actually being in hand is extremely low.

I've seen too many cases like this: financing amounts, sales figures, daily active users are repeatedly inflated, but when you dig into the details, the supporting evidence for these numbers is actually very thin. Investment immigration programs are even higher risk, where the gap between promises and actual fulfillment is often worlds apart.

The key is to learn how to understand the supporting logic behind the numbers. What does "real sales" mean? It's not just what the announcement says, but actual cash in the account, contracts signed, and processes initiated. Any ambiguous area leaves room for exaggeration, and these are the easiest places to get caught in traps.