#比特币价格预测 Seeing Arthur Hayes again bullish on Bitcoin, I have to say—I've heard this logic too many times before. QE, liquidity easing, fiat devaluation... Every cycle, someone uses these reasons to paint a rosy picture. $124,000, $200,000—these numbers sound impressive, but what I care more about is that he quietly transferred 508 ETH to an exchange yesterday.

This is the first lesson I learned: just listen, and watch where their money goes. When a big influencer is shouting about gains while selling off, that action is much more honest than words.

I'm not saying his analysis is completely wrong; macro factors do have support. But the problem is—predicting prices is just storytelling; making money depends on execution and risk management. I've seen too many people get caught up in FOMO from these predictions, buy at the top, and end up trapped half-dead.

My advice remains the same: don't let a number dictate your decisions. If you truly believe in Bitcoin's long-term value, then dollar-cost average, set stop-losses, and prepare mentally. If you're just following the trend for short-term gains, be even more cautious—this is when smart money is most likely to harvest.

The bottom line is, those who survive long on-chain never bet on one person's prediction; they only bet on what they can control.