Start of the Year January Outlook: Is the Christmas rally continuing into the new year?

In the first two trading days before New Year’s Day, the market performance was not good:
‍#美股 Slight pullback, BTC remains volatile, sentiment is cautious.
But last weekend’s swift action by the US against Venezuela clearly changed the market’s risk pricing.
As analyzed in yesterday’s tweet—
Quick decisive action and reducing uncertainty are positive for risk assets.
To put it simply, global funds’ confidence in “US assets” ultimately depends on national strength and execution capability.
This move also served as a short-term catalyst, boosting #BTC and risk assets.
Currently, the Christmas rally has not ended; instead, there are signs of it extending into the new year.
Three key observations for this week
1️⃣ CES Consumer Electronics Show (Tech Clues)
CES will showcase:
AI chips
Robots
Smart terminals and AI hardware deployment scenarios
The short-term impact is not about “disruptive innovation,” but about:
AI moving from the narrative stage → application and hardware realization stage
This provides positive support for tech stocks sentiment and overall risk appetite.
2️⃣ Non-farm Payroll Data on Friday
The current market consensus is:
Non-farm job gains: slightly above expectations
Unemployment rate: in line or slightly higher than expectations
There is only one real risk point:
👉 If the labor market is significantly weaker than expected
Otherwise, this data is unlikely to be a major drag on risk assets.
3️⃣ Venezuela Regime Evolution
The current market understanding is:
Trump’s goal is not long-term civil war or losing control
But rather to remove Maduro + support Rodriguez’s rise
Using the existing regime system to quickly complete the power transition
The smoother the execution → the lower the geopolitical uncertainty → the more risk-on the market
In the short term, this line of development remains favorable.
Conclusion for this week
Overall:
Macro, political, and tech clues this week generally support continued strength in the market.
But—
Whether the “January rally” evolves into a “spring market” depends not now, but on mid-January.
Mid to late January “stress test”
As mentioned on December 24, the event density in mid-January will significantly increase:
1️⃣ Affordable Care Act subsidy negotiations
After January 31
Deciding whether the government will shut down again or fully resume normal operations
2️⃣ Supreme Court tariff ruling
If it rules Trump’s tariffs illegal
Short-term positive for companies
But the White House is likely to bypass this via Congress legislation
Market may experience a brief period of chaos
3️⃣ December CPI data
This is the first full inflation sample after the government’s temporary shutdown ended
November CPI was already highly debated
December data will carry significantly more weight in pricing
4️⃣ Earnings season begins
After the intense debate over Q4 2024,
Market expectations for earnings will become more stringent
Risk aversion may occur before the earnings season
👉 Any of these events evolving into a “bad scenario” could cause volatility in mid to late January.
Another underestimated variable: the Fed Chair nomination
After January begins, Trump could announce the next Fed Chair at any time.
The importance of this lies in:
Directly changing market expectations for rate cuts and policy direction
Highly sensitive variables for interest rates, USD, US stocks, and BTC
Summary in one sentence
Short-term (this week): bullish
Medium-term (mid to late January): volatility window
Best-case scenario: all events unfold smoothly → spring market begins
Worst-case scenario: policy and macro shocks simultaneously → phased retreat
It’s not time for blind optimism,
But also far from a panic stage.
The real test will come after mid-January.