#市场调整与情绪 Seeing the news that miner hash rate has dropped by 4%, my first reaction isn't excitement but to calm down and think about those "bottoms" in the past.

This kind of contrarian indicator does have some reference value—VanEck's data shows that after a hash rate decline, the probability of positive returns over the next 90 days is 65%, with an average increase of 72% over 180 days. It sounds promising. But I want to remind you that behind these impressive numbers, there is often a harsh reality: bottom confirmation is always a post-hoc analysis.

Anyone who has gone through several cycles understands that "miner capitulation" may signal a bottom, or it may just be another dip before the bottom. The problem is, you simply don't know where you stand. I've seen too many people go all-in on such positive signals, only for the price to drop another 30% before truly hitting the bottom.

A more realistic suggestion is: these indicators can serve as signals to reduce risk appetite, but they shouldn't be reasons to go all-in. During market corrections, human nature is most transparent—panic buyers chase highs, greed-driven traders try to bottom fish, and those who survive tend to be observing. Use small amounts to test and verify, rather than betting everything to validate historical probabilities.

The bottom will come, but only if you are still alive to see it.