三大力量齊發威，金銅比銅油比為何齊聲上漲？

The market has recently been stirred up by three major events—US tariffs, inflation expectations, and the AI boom. The most intuitive signals are the gold-to-copper ratio and the copper-to-oil ratio moving upward simultaneously. What do these two indicators actually tell us? Let’s break it down.

The Risk Signals Behind the All-Time High in the Gold-Copper Ratio

The gold-copper ratio has been on the rise since mid-January, approaching the high of 41.75 seen at the end of October last year. Simply put, the gold-copper ratio is the price of gold divided by the price of crude oil. When this ratio climbs rapidly, it usually indicates spreading risk aversion—investors flock to gold and sell off oil, creating a market filled with unease.

This indicator is known as a leading indicator of economic growth because it reflects changes in the global risk structure. A sharp rise in the gold-copper ratio at mid to high levels often signals the onset of geopolitical crises or financial crises. In other words, this current rally is not a good sign.

Tariff Escalation Deals a Heavy Blow to Market Expectations

On Monday (February 10), Trump announced a 25% tariff on all imported steel and aluminum products. But this is not the end—he plans to introduce a “reciprocal tariff” policy later this week. Simply put, the US will set tariffs on imported goods to match the tariffs its trading partners impose on American products, applicable to all countries.

What does this mean? Trade tensions are escalating again. Expectations of tariffs are a major factor triggering market risk aversion, which explains why investors are rushing to buy gold for protection.

Strong Labor Market but Persistent Inflation

Last Friday, the US released January non-farm payroll data, showing 143,000 new jobs, the lowest in three months. It seems like the economy is cooling down. But don’t celebrate too early—average hourly earnings increased by 0.5% month-over-month, surpassing the expected 0.3%. What does this imply? Wages are accelerating, which will push up service sector inflation, indicating that inflation remains stubbornly high.

A strong labor market directly puts pressure on the Federal Reserve. Previously, the market expected multiple rate cuts this year, but now everyone is only betting on one rate cut in 2025. The Fed is also happy to hold steady for now and see what impact the US tariff policies will have.

Copper-Oil Ratio Rising Together, Confusing Signals of Economic Recovery

Interestingly, when the gold-copper ratio rises, the copper-to-oil ratio also tends to increase. Generally, a faster rise in copper prices compared to oil indicates economic recovery; conversely, if oil outperforms copper, it suggests rising stagflation risks. Now both are rising, making the signals somewhat mixed.

However, looking closely at the underlying reasons, Cochilco (Chile’s Copper Commission) forecasts a global copper supply shortfall of 118,000 tons by 2025. Where does this gap come from? The explosion of AI technology.

The Logic Behind Copper Price Rise in the AI Era

The emergence of DeepSeek has lowered the barriers for developers and accelerated the adoption of AI technology. As we enter the era of large models, artificial intelligence has become a market hotspot. On February 10, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman emphasized in a blog post that the company is fully deploying AI Agents—those thousands of intelligent entities that will eventually serve as virtual colleagues across various business scenarios.

What does this mean? AI data centers will become a new growth driver for copper demand. As AI technology develops rapidly, copper demand is expected to surge explosively. This also explains why copper prices are rising despite expectations of an economic slowdown.

Risks and Opportunities Coexist

In summary, recent market trends will revolve around three themes: tariffs, inflation, and AI. The biggest risk is that if tariff policies truly impact the global economy and inflation heats up further, market risk aversion will be fully triggered—at which point gold will become even more sought after.

On the other hand, the AI revolution is indeed reshaping the business landscape, and the revaluation of tech companies is still ongoing. But as a producer country, China’s AI-driven substitution of human labor could further intensify deflationary pressures, which might be the real reason why oil prices keep falling. Every side of the market triangle is tightening, and investors need to stay alert.