ViolentPandaW
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Currently, both Ethereum and Bitcoin are in a bearish trend. Ethereum is exhibiting a consolidation pattern; although it dipped downward briefly, the rebound is strong and effectively pushes back into the consolidation zone, which can be seen as a false breakout. As for Bitcoin, after a round of decline, it continued to decline in the evening over the weekend, forming a downward channel. Based on volume distribution and structure, if it can effectively break through the 88,600 level, there will be a significant upward move.
ETH-4.96%
BTC-3.63%
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Intraday Summary: Today, I took a short position on Bitcoin at 92350, with a stop loss at 92500 and a take profit around 91650, resulting in a risk-reward ratio of approximately 5:1. Ultimately, the position was triggered for stop loss.
Friday's market always moves slowly. Intraday, Bitcoin fluctuated between 92000 and 92700, while Ethereum ranged between 3230 and 3260.
Intraday trading advice: Focus on buying dips. Bitcoin's trend is relatively strong. From a daily chart perspective, Bitcoin is oscillating within a converging triangle. If it can effectively break through the resistance above
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ETH-4.96%
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Morning Analysis: Last night also reminded us that 3190 is a key level for bulls and bears to争夺. Chart 1 shows that attempts to突破 at 3190 failed twice, but on the third attempt, it成功突破 and伴随着 a good拉伸幅度. Currently, the secondary chart is in a战斗区 between多头 and空头. The转多 position is at 3245, and the转空 position is at 3195.
From the perspective of Fibonacci and VP, as shown in Chart 3, the current state is a回调 from the前天的下跌波段, with resistance at the 0.382 level. Ethereum at 3327 (which is the 0.618 Fibonacci level) is the most critical, serving as a short-term牛熊分水岭. For today, focus on the support
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Afternoon Market Analysis: After a significant decline last night and this morning, the current market is experiencing a sideways consolidation. From a Fibonacci perspective, there is good support above the 0.5 level, and it faced resistance three times at the 0.236 level. Looking at the volume profile, 3192 is a very critical level with high trading volume, which is also an important reason for the support.
Summary: Ethereum is moving within a range, showing signs of a breakout. If it breaks above 3215, stabilizes, and shifts from bearish to bullish, it may be worth trying long positions. Con
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Morning Analysis: Bitcoin and Ethereum are currently in a bearish trend, but they are still within the 1-hour bullish FVG. In the short term, look for short positions; in the long term, look for long positions. At 9:00, liquidity from the 8:00 candle was pulled down, accompanied by significant momentum release. This area is where the battle between bulls and bears unfolds—trade in the direction of the breakout. Follow me and keep an eye on the real-time orders in the comment section.
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ETH-4.96%
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Evening Analysis: Around 12:42 in the comment section, two trades were made. One was a short on Bitcoin at 92400, with a stop loss at 92600. However, Bitcoin did not retrace to trigger the stop loss, so the trade was not executed. Ethereum at 3350 was shorted with a stop loss at 3360, but after hitting the stop loss by a small margin, the price dropped.
Strategy Analysis: Currently, both Bitcoin and Ethereum are in bearish structures. Bitcoin reacts at the trend reversal point, accompanied by an ifvg indicator, and enters on retracement at the ifvg level. The same applies to Ethereum.
Although
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ViolentPandaWvip:
Bitcoin is also retracing to the 92,400 level now, but short positions should not be taken. Retracements also require attention to timing.
How to approach tonight's Federal Reserve meeting? Everyone can follow me. I will analyze the market structure and share my personal views before the meeting, and I will also post real-time trades in the comments section.
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This afternoon's trading situation and thoughts:
First trade: Bitcoin 92620 short, 92700 stop-loss, risk-reward ratio 2:1, reduce position to preserve capital. Second trade: Bitcoin 92650 short, 92800 stop-loss. Risk-reward ratio 1.5x.
Trading thoughts: 4-hour liquidity trapping, sufficient momentum, cleared enough short liquidity, turning downward, with structure, can attempt to short, stop-loss 80 points. Unfortunately, the first trade hit the stop-loss, but it's not a big issue, the loss isn't large. For the second trade, still clearing upward liquidity, releasing momentum, with structure t
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BTC 92620, stop loss 92700, target to be determined
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ViolentPandaWvip:
Radical re-enter
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Some students asked the teacher, what do you think of the Fed meeting tonight? My answer is: no need to look at it, do it normally. Every bill in our community is based on logic and structure, and only with structure will we consider whether to enter or not. The market volatility caused by the Fed's meeting only shortens the time we watch and hold, and does not change the direction of our orders.
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ViolentPandaWvip:
Just do it according to the structure, bring a stop loss, and let the profit run by itself
Daily morning analysis: Bitcoin is currently in a bearish trend, with a reversal point around 92,750. Ethereum is currently in a bullish trend, with a reversal point around 3,271. The situation is similar to yesterday—one bearish, one bullish. It's estimated that there will be significant volatility tonight due to news events.
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ETH-4.96%
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The second day of trading with $500 in real funds. Currently holding a short position at 580. The short position has been partially closed, continuing to look for further downside.
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Currently, I am holding an Ethereum short position. At 8:30 tonight, I also reminded everyone that you could try a small short position. The short is currently in floating profit. Regardless of the outcome, let me explain the rationale behind this trade.
Today's market is quite complicated. I posted this afternoon saying that BTC is bullish, but ETH is bearish, which is a divergence and greatly increases the difficulty of trading. Since the afternoon, both ETH and BTC have shown a choppy upward trend, and there was a decent gain by the evening. However, I don't think this is a sign to go long.
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Currently, from the perspective of SMC, Bitcoin is in a major bullish trend, with the bullish reversal level around 90050. However, Ethereum is in a bearish trend, with the bearish reversal level around 3125.
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ViolentPandaWvip:
You can short Ethereum a little, with a stop loss at 3140.
Beginners should avoid altcoins and start with mainstream coins (BTC, ETH) to get a feel for the market.
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Ethereum has had very little volume all day, with funds flowing into Bitcoin instead. Once again, it's time for Bitcoin to lead the decline and for Ethereum to follow.
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