The Historical Cycles of the US Dollar Index and Its Current Position
To understand the future trajectory of the US dollar, it is essential to review its historical path. Since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1971, the dollar index has experienced eight complete cycle fluctuations.
In the early 1970s, after Nixon announced the end of the gold standard, the dollar entered a period of excess, compounded by the oil crisis, causing the index to decline below 90. Subsequently, during Paul Volcker's tenure as Federal Reserve Chairman, aggressive policies such as raising the federal funds rate to 20% pushed the dollar index to a historic high in 1985, followed by a long-term correction. Events like the dot-com bubble burst, the 2008 financial crisis, and the unlimited quantitative easing during the COVID-19 pandemic all contributed to multiple downward cycles of the dollar.
In 2022, the Federal Reserve launched its most aggressive rate hike cycle in 25 years to curb inflation, strengthening the dollar index. However, by the end of 2024 to early 2025, this