CyrilDeFi
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Merry chirstmas chat!
Love yall
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🚨 THE SAD REALITY OF ALTSEASON NO ONE WANTS TO TALK ABOUT. KEEP READING 👇
They’re bleeding because this part of the cycle is designed to break you.
Here’s what’s actually happening 🧵⬇️
1) Bitcoin dominance is quietly doing its job
When BTC dominance rises, capital concentrates
Money doesn’t leave crypto it hides in Bitcoin.
That means:
• BTC becomes the safety trade
• Alts turn into liquidity sources
• Risk compresses before it expands
This happens every single cycle before alt strength returns.
2) Tax-loss harvesting is crushing alts right now
Crypto is one of the only major asset classes
BTC-0.55%
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$BTC (Weekly)
BTC lost the big ~100k “decision zone” and is now trying to stabilize below it (around ~87k on this candle).
The small box under price looks like the current “hold this or it gets annoying” support area.
Expectation: reclaiming and holding back above the ~100k zone flips the vibe bullish fast. If this support breaks clean, it likely visits the next lower demand zone before a real trend resumes.
BTC-0.55%
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$BTC.D 1W - update
Dominance bounced hard off the boxed support zone and is now grinding higher again 4.67
That usually means capital is still choosing BTC first and alts stay on “hard mode.”
iIf BTC.D keeps printing higher lows, any alt pumps are likely short + selective.
If BTC.D rolls over from here, that’s when alts finally get oxygen.
BTC-0.55%
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TAO ( 1 week)
TAO is sitting right on a major demand zone (~210 area), after a long stretch of choppy lower highs.
This is the type of level where either:
you get a sharp bounce (because buyers defend it), or
it breaks and turns into “dead-cat bounce” territory.
as long as TAO holds this zone, a relief move back into prior ranges (first ~300–400, then higher if momentum returns) is plausible.
If it loses the zone, patience > hopium.
TAO1.43%
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Wait till SILVER starts reversing
Guess where all that profit will go?
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$BTC.D is quietly telling you the whole story here.
After that big dump earlier in the year, dominance has been making higher lows since September
Right now it’s range-breaking / holding near the highs 46.2% and consolidating, not collapsing.
Key levels:
Support: 44–45% (where it keeps bouncing)
Resistance: 47–48% (next area that decides if BTC keeps stealing liquidity)
My take: as long as BTC.D stays elevated, alts will feel “heavy” and pumps will be more selective.
For a real broad alt run, you usually want BTC.D to reject + roll over, not grind up like this.
BTC-0.55%
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ETH/BTC
Pair is sitting in a key demand zone (~0.032–0.033) and keeps getting defended.
Structure looks like base-building after months of bleeding.
What I’m watching: a clean reclaim/hold above the recent pivot 0.034–0.035
ETH starts catching bids vs BTC again.
Lose the zone = more ETH underperformance.
ETH-0.08%
BTC-0.55%
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$BTC
$BTC is basically in a relief bounce + consolidation after that sharp dump from the highs.
You’ve got a near-term floor around the mid/low 80s (the box) getting tested, and a major resistance/supply around ~$100k (big box).
Translation: market is deciding if this is a dead cat bounce or the start of a proper reclaim.
Reclaim + hold above $90k–$92k helps.
Fail the floor = opens the door to deeper sweep.
BTC-0.55%
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$ETH
ETH is also chopping inside a support band around the high-2Ks/low-3Ks (your shaded zone).
The trend still looks heavy, but the bounce attempts say buyers aren’t fully asleep yet.
What matters: reclaiming the recent breakdown area (~$3.2k–$3.4k) would be the first “okay maybe” signal.
If it can’t, ETH stays stuck in range/grind mode.
ETH-0.08%
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$QF is building the world's fastest L1 with the lowest latency, while still being true to decentralization.
The term real-time blockchain is fitting as it will finally be fast enough to power web2 applications with web3 infrastructure.
> Things like running games as smart contracts. Not just transactions.
Supporting millions of concurrent users while at the same time, offering privacy preserving technology and ZKTLS to create a bridge for data form the real world to the blockchain.
Mainnet is close to launching.
the tech is there , the team keeps pushing
$QF is one of my fav alts moving into 2
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For the past 3 years, altcoins have consistently rebounded from this support level.
Will history repeat itself?
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Most people don’t miss the top.
They miss the re-accumulation phase because it feels like nothing is happening.
Boredom is usually where the real money is made.
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$BTC.D
Dominance is trending up and pressing higher again = capital still prefers BTC over alts.
When BTC.D climbs, “altseason” usually turns into “alts bleed quietly season.
If BTC.D keeps pushing up, expect alts to underperform even if BTC bounces. A rejection/rollover here is what you want to see before alts really breathe.
BTC-0.55%
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Everyone wants a bull market.
Very few survive the chop that comes before it.
If you’re still here while the market is boring, painful, and quiet —
you’re already ahead of 90%.
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$ETH
ETH is basically stuck in the same story: bouncing, but still under key overhead levels.
The orange band ($2.7–3.0k) is the battlefield. It’s support until it isn’t.
Above that, ETH needs to reclaim $3.2–3.4k to look “healthy” again.
Expectation: hold $2.7–3.0k = chop + attempts higher.
Lose it = quick downside acceleration (because everyone leaning on the same floor).
ETH-0.08%
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$ETH/BTC
ETH is still range-bound vs BTC. Not broken, but not winning either.
It needs a clean reclaim above the range highs (roughly mid-0.03s) to flip momentum back in ETH’s favor.
As long as ETH/BTC can’t break up, rallies in ETH are likely “bounce vibes,” not “ETH leads the market” vibes.
Break up = better odds alts wake up too.
ETH-0.08%
BTC-0.55%
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Recap altcoins ranked by high volume for today:
( $CC) — $0.09496 | 1h: +0.5% | 24h: -11.8% | 7d: +35.4% | Vol: $36,094,937 | MCap: $3,547,474,680
Weekly trend still up, but today’s giving “profit-taking” vibes.
( $RAVE) — $0.7006 | 1h: -0.7% | 24h: +85.3% | 7d: +146.0% | Vol: $67,664,630 | MCap: $163,683,518
This is the clear momentum runner—big green candles, big attention.
( $TAO) — $223.68 | 1h: +0.8% | 24h: -0.8% | 7d: -19.7% | Vol: $69,349,451 | MCap: $2,165,302,065
Not dead, just heavy. Looks like it’s still digesting that weekly bleed.
( $ZKP) — $0.1591 | 1h: -1.8% | 24h: +69.2% | 7
CC30.55%
RAVE-1.93%
TAO1.43%
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