Polaris_xbt

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$BTC / Stables
Relative BTC marketcap is stuck in a mini range. However this resolves will likely dictate the tone for the rest of the year.

BTC-2,39%

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Polaris_xbt

20h ago

$ETH
ETH/BTC is waking up again.
We have formed a nice base for an extension into 2026.
This should give plenty of breathing space for altcoins

ETH-4,01%

BTC-2,39%

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Polaris_xbt

01-06 21:24

$HYPE
Important daily close here.
Looks rather good despite local BTC weakness.
If we get a daily close above the weekly I will start looking for longs.

HYPE-2,74%

BTC-2,39%

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Polaris_xbt

01-06 17:18

Stablecoin dominance looks extremely bearish.
It failed to retest the range high and is now dropping back inside the old range.
Weekly close below = game over for bears

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Polaris_xbt

01-06 02:11

Total 3 - Stables
The log channel is the bull market channel for altcoins.
We are still far from reclaiming it but if we do, the euphoria phase begins...

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Polaris_xbt

01-05 21:01

Altcoin risk chart
Ever since the October armageddon the altcoins have been in a buy zone.
December 15 to 25 we even went below 20 on risk chart. This is equivalent to 2022 bear market bottom. These have been insane buying opportunities.
Now we are rapidly approaching the 30+ zone which is where we just hold our buys and ride them into euphoria.

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Polaris_xbt

01-05 02:09

$BTC Dominance
When you zoom out on BTC.D and compare the current sentiment and price action with previous cycle, the similarities become very clear.
In late 2019, Bitcoin spent months grinding lower at a slow pace together with BTC dominance. That environment eventually led to a final spike in BTC.D, which marked the transition into the #Altseason and market top.
A similar scenario is possible with the current market structure.
The key condition for this to play out is Bitcoin reclaiming the 101k level (weekly FVG I mentioned earlier today). A reclaim of that level would challenge the traditi

BTC-2,39%

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Polaris_xbt

01-04 21:16

$FET
Broke the HTF trendline.
Will take 1 trade with half the size here and add another half upon reclaim of 0.43.

FET-7,34%

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Polaris_xbt

01-04 17:09

$BTC yearly outlook
We get a strong rebound in Q1.
What happens after depends on the monthly FVG.
🔸If it holds and BTC starts breaking down from ~100k I will start derisking significantly.
🔸If it breaks and BTC starts closing above that means that 4 year cycle is a myth and we are likely entering a final euphoric extension where we actually get the proper altseason.

BTC-2,39%

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Polaris_xbt

01-04 07:08

$DOGE
The final support for DOGE/BTC.
If we lose this we are back in pre 2020 range and you can kiss goodbye to memes for a good while...

DOGE-2,54%

BTC-2,39%

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Polaris_xbt

01-03 13:05

Altcoins bottom 350-400 days after they top.
It's been 385 days since altcoin topped in December of 2024.
Even though it does not look like bear market looking at $BTC, the 2025 definitely was a bear market year for altcoins... and the bottom is very, very close.

BTC-2,39%

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Polaris_xbt

01-02 21:06

$BTC
Here's an interesting statistics for you...
Three day divergences on Awesome Oscillator play out 89% of times.

BTC-2,39%

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Polaris_xbt

01-02 13:08

$ETH
This is not an area to sell Ethereum.
This is one of the strongest zones to accumulate.
The amount of sidelined stablecoin liquidity is approaching historical highs. With QE coming that capital will not stay idle. It will flow into risk assets.
Ethereum will be one of the primary beneficiaries.

ETH-4,01%

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N98ApocalypseStar

2026 Go Go Go 👊

Polaris_xbt

01-02 07:51

$AVAX
I have stacked limit orders from 13.1 to 12.1.
SL is 11.3
Looks stronger than most alts so it could lead the pump into the Q1 if we get it :)

AVAX-3,44%

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Polaris_xbt

01-02 02:02

$XPL
Log channel broken after 2 months of desperation.
Time to look for longs with invalidation being acceptance back inside the channel... in other words, candle close below 0.12.

XPL-13,07%

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Polaris_xbt

01-01 17:05

Starting the new year with something useful - Backtesting
I decided to pick simple stuff that everybody has access to and that is easy to interpret.
First and foremost you all know about RSI and how to look for divs... but in backtesting and trading it is preferable to remove every ounce of subjectivity so we will use RSI indicator that automatically displays bull/bear divs. This way you won't have to ask yourself is this a div or not, are the peaks too far apart etc...
The RSI indicator we will use is:
RSI Divergences (author is domenicosilletti).
Settings are showed in the chart below.
So wh

BTC-2,39%

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Polaris_xbt

01-01 13:02

Total 3 – Stables
#Altcoins marketcap is essentially one gigantic range with the 2022 bear market acting as a clear deviation.
We attempted twice to break through the range high but failed, which opens the door for a potential revisit toward the range low. Before that happens, sentiment likely needs to reset. A slow drift into eternal pain feels unlikely without a wave of renewed optimism first.

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Polaris_xbt

2025-12-31 13:03

$ETH
Not much to act upon here.
We are literally in the middle of the range...
Potential setup opens up if we sweep the trendline liquidity at the local lows. Other than that... patience

ETH-4,01%