Cardano Founder: The Quantum Threat to Cryptocurrency Is Exaggerated; The Real Challenge Lies in Efficiency and Standards Setting

Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson recently stated that the current discussions about “quantum technology threatening blockchain security” are mostly overhyped. He believes that while quantum computing does pose a potential risk to traditional cryptography, the true obstacle to industry upgrades is not a lack of technology, but rather performance sacrifices and incomplete standardization.

In a recent podcast, Hoskinson bluntly said that quantum technology is more like “a huge red herring.” He pointed out that blockchains can absolutely migrate to quantum-resistant algorithms, but the tradeoff is a significant drop in network throughput and a sharp increase in costs. “If today I can do 1,000 transactions per second, after migration it might be only 100 per second, and costs could increase tenfold. No one wants to do that,” he said.

He emphasized that the key reason for the industry’s slow upgrade is that the standardization process is still not fully complete. The U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) is developing new post-quantum cryptography standards (FIPS 203-206), and hardware vendors must also wait for the final specifications before launching acceleration chips. If networks adopt non-standardized algorithms prematurely, they could face performance bottlenecks for up to a decade.

As the U.S. government begins to implement post-quantum standards and major infrastructure companies like Cloudflare have already integrated related key exchange solutions, the industry is gradually entering a phase of clearer planning. Hoskinson pointed out that instead of panicking, it is better to watch government-level benchmarks, such as DARPA’s “Quantum Blockchain Initiative” (QBI), which is assessing the real-world viability of quantum technology over the next decade.

Currently, most cryptography experts believe that quantum computers capable of breaking blockchain signature systems (CRQC level) may appear in the 2030s. The risk lies in “when to migrate,” not “whether to migrate.” Switching too early will result in excessive costs and ecosystem fragmentation; switching too late may increase security pressures.

Hoskinson emphasized that there is currently no evidence suggesting that blockchain cryptography is facing an imminent quantum attack. As standards become clear and hardware acceleration is in place, blockchains will naturally transition to quantum-secure systems over the next decade, rather than hastily transforming out of panic.