CLARITY Act Approval Rate Falls to 37% by July 24 as Trump Ethics Conflict Stalls Senate Vote

According to Polymarket data, the probability of the CLARITY Act passing this year has dropped to 37% as of July 24, down sharply from over 80% earlier this spring. Senate Majority Leader John Thune indicated the bill is unlikely to be voted on before the August recess.

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act aims to establish a regulatory framework for cryptocurrency. However, ethics clause negotiations have become the primary obstacle, with Democrats demanding stricter provisions to prevent President Trump and federal officials from profiting through crypto assets. Republicans recently submitted a revised bill restricting elected officials from trading crypto, but Democrats argue the new language contains loopholes and fails to address Trump family gains from memecoin projects.