South Korean Brokers Forecast KOSPI to Hit 12,000 Points by End-Q4 on Earnings Recovery

According to a July 6 survey by Financial News of South Korean investment research centers, KOSPI is forecast to reach 7,290-12,000 points in the second half of 2026, driven by second and fourth quarter earnings season. Samsung Securities projected 8,000-12,000 points, while Shinhan Investment and Meritz Securities forecast 7,300-9,900 and 7,290-9,500 points respectively.

Research center heads cited improved corporate earnings from Samsung Electronics' HBM progress and AI investment expansion as key catalysts. Forward 12-month earnings per share (EPS) rose to 1,098.8 points from 666.6 points in late March, with price-to-earnings ratio at 7.64x, indicating undervaluation. However, analysts warned that global interest rate risks from oil price fluctuations and U.S. policy uncertainty ahead of November mid-term elections could trigger market volatility despite earnings improvements.