Based on the current market data and technical indicators (July 31, 2025), Bitcoin (BTC) may show the following key trends today:

1. Short-term bullish signal technical breakout: BTC is currently trading within the symmetrical triangle range of $117,500-$118,700. If it breaks through the resistance level of $118,700, it may accelerate to $120,500 or even $121,664.
Institutional fund inflow: Despite a short-term net outflow of $22.81M, long-term funds remain optimistic about BTC, especially with the news that the U.S. Treasury is including BTC in its reserves, which may support market confidence.
On-chain data: The cost basis support for short-term holders is at $105,450. If this level is maintained, BTC may rally to $125,230.
2. Potential pullback risk of short-term overbought: MACD shows bearish crossover, RSI is neutral but momentum is weakening. If it falls below $117,000, it may test $114,600 (200 EMA) or even $112,000.
Whale Sell-off: Recently, 80,000 BTC flowed into exchanges, some of which have not yet been digested, which may increase short-term selling pressure.
Impact of the Fed's Hawkish Stance: Powell's comments led to market fluctuations, and if the expectations for a rate cut in September decrease further, it may suppress BTC's rise.
3. Key price range upward target: After breaking through $118,700, it may test $120,500-$121,664, or even challenge the historical high of $123,000.
Downside risk: If it falls below $117,000, it may retreat to the support zone of $114,600-$112,000.
4. Market Catalysts Macroeconomic Data: If today's PCE inflation data is lower than expected, it may boost market risk appetite.
Policy Impact: The long-term benefits of the U.S. Treasury holding BTC may offset the short-term selling pressure of "buy the rumor, sell the news".
Today's trend prediction optimistic scenario: breaking through $118,700 and stabilizing, may test the $120,500-$121,664 range.
Pessimistic scenario: If it falls below $117,000, it may retrace to $114,600-$112,000.
Suggested focus:
$117,000-$118,700 range (short-term bullish-bearish watershed)
Volume change (breakthrough needs volume confirmation)
Whale movements on the chain (changes in exchange BTC balance).
Currently, BTC is in a critical breakout phase. It is recommended to adjust strategies based on real-time data and set stop-loss orders.