1️⃣ If the United States incorporates BTC into its national reserves, will it trigger a bull run?

• Deterministic effect: extremely favorable
If the United States officially includes BTC in its reserves, it is essentially an official endorsement of BTC as a "global reserve asset", similar to the historical peg of the US dollar to gold.
• Market chain reaction
• Institutions and foundations accelerate allocations (due to significantly reduced compliance risks);
• Sovereign wealth funds from countries around the world may follow suit (especially countries engaged in a game with the US dollar).
→ Result: A bull run is almost certain to begin, and its intensity may exceed that of the 2020-2021 cycle.

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2️⃣ Short-term/Long-term BTC price prediction

📈 Short-term (within 1 year)
• If it is just rumors or policy discussions: BTC may price in advance, impacting the $120K–$150K range.
• If officially implemented: it will trigger a dual buying pressure of "safe-haven assets + global consensus", and in the short term, it is expected to approach $200K.

📈 Long-term (3-5 years)
• BTC enters the national reserve sequence, with a market value comparable to gold (current gold market value is about $14T).
• If BTC occupies 30% of the gold market value → price approximately $500K;
• If BTC accounts for 50% → the price may surge to $800K-$1M.

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3️⃣ When might it be implemented? Will other countries follow?
• US level
• Short term (1-2 years): It may appear in the form of "research, proposals, hearings", more as a political trial.
• Medium-term (2-5 years): If the dollar hegemony is challenged (such as the expansion of de-dollarization trends), the United States may take real action to incorporate BTC into reserves as a hedge.
• Other countries
• Pioneers may be in Latin America (such as El Salvador, which has expressed its stance) or in countries with tense relations with the US dollar (Russia, Iran).
• Once the United States gives the green light, developed economies (the EU and Japan) will have to follow suit due to financial competition.
• Result: A global competition similar to a "digital gold standard" will emerge.

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🔑 In summary:
If the United States includes BTC in its reserves, it will be a historical catalyst. In the short term, BTC may soar to $200K, while in the long run, it has the logic to reach a million dollars. However, the timing may still require 2-5 years, depending on changes in geopolitical dynamics and the status of the dollar.

#BTC Reserve Market Impact & #Gate Square Mid Autumn Creator Incentive