#十月加密市场预测 Cb bullish October crypto market: These three signals are the core logic of bullish.

As the crypto market is still searching for direction in the fluctuations of September, a report from leading exchange Cb for October directly presents a clear view of being "bullish on a tactical level". This report is not baseless; it anchors key changes in the macro economy and market liquidity, providing investors with a clear bullish narrative.

The core supporting the bullish judgment on Cb lies in three market signals that cannot be ignored. First is the weakening of the dollar and the warming of the Federal Reserve's dovish inclination. The core PCE inflation data released at the end of September met market expectations, which significantly boosted traders' confidence in a shift in Federal Reserve policy—current market expectations generally anticipate that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in October will likely see the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points. For the crypto market, the strength and weakness of the dollar show a typical inverse relationship with asset prices: a weaker dollar means increased attractiveness of cryptocurrencies to global investors, and the 'low interest rate environment' brought about by rate cuts will also reduce the opportunity cost of holding crypto assets, driving funds toward risk assets.

Secondly, the liquidity environment in October welcomes a "window period". Cb's analysis through a customized M2 liquidity index shows that although liquidity headwinds may become apparent starting in November, the liquidity situation in October is sufficient to support risk assets. More direct benefits come from within the market: on September 30, FTX paid $1.6 billion to creditors, and this influx of funds provided immediate liquidity to the crypto market, temporarily alleviating the tightness in funding and providing "ammunition" for asset price rebounds.

Finally, there is a clear signal conveyed by the rise in federal funds futures prices. The fluctuations in federal funds futures prices essentially serve as a "barometer" for the market's expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy. Recently, this price has continued to rise, reflecting the market's increasing expectations for interest rate cuts—when investors realize that future rates may decline, they are more willing to abandon low-yielding stable assets in favor of potential high-return crypto assets like Bitcoin. This migration of funds is a crucial basis for Cb's bullish outlook on the October market.

It is worth noting that the report also mentions a key comparison: the correlation of Bitcoin with global liquidity is significantly higher than that of gold. This means that when global liquidity increases, Bitcoin can benefit more directly. Combined with the current possibility of the Federal Reserve initiating a loosening cycle, global liquidity is likely to further increase, and Bitcoin, as a "barometer" of the crypto market, may see its price trend become the core driver of the market in October.

However, the crypto market is always influenced by multiple factors, and subtle changes in macro policies or shifts in market sentiment can alter short-term trends. Cb's outlook is more inclined towards "tactical" short-term judgments. While investors pay attention to positive signals, they also need to做好风险防控 and rationally grasp the rhythm of the market.