Two Bitcoin Stories: One Regret, One Victory

Raoul Pal’s 2013 Bitcoin bet is a textbook example of “right timing, wrong exit.” The Real Vision CEO bought $200K worth when BTC was dirt cheap ($13-$754 range), but panic-sold at $2,000 in 2017—right before the first major bull run took off. That decision cost him roughly $100 million. By December 2017, his original stake would’ve been worth that, and today it’d be astronomical.

Pal’s story isn’t unique among early investors. He even predicted $100K Bitcoin using Stock-to-Flow modeling, yet still sold the dip. The irony? He remains bullish on Bitcoin long-term and thinks altcoins like Solana and Sui will pump harder in the next cycle.

The flip side? Enter Rego The Trader, a pseudonymous hodler who nailed the opposite strategy. Over 8 years, Rego mechanically bought $15 of Bitcoin every 12 hours via Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA)—never sold once, just kept stacking. Total invested: ~$86,500. Current value (as of Nov 22, 2024): $1.15 million.

Same asset, wildly different outcomes. Pal had better entry prices and larger capital, yet Rego walked away with massive gains through boring discipline. The lesson here isn’t complicated: timing exits beats timing entries, and boring beats emotional every single time.

Both investors still believe in Bitcoin. The difference? One learned it the hard way.