The recent remarks by Daly, the head of the San Francisco Fed, are quite interesting—she directly characterized last week's rate cut as "insurance" for the labor market. As for whether there will be another cut in December? Her stance is "we'll see how it goes."

Daley said something very straightforward: if the goal is to bring inflation down to 2%, losing millions of jobs is too high a price to pay. This statement is actually quite contradictory—acknowledging that inflation has not yet been brought down, while also worrying that the job market may not hold up. The Federal Reserve is currently caught in this dilemma.

Analyst Krishna Guha from Evercore ISI sensed a different vibe. He said that although Daly did not explicitly state that there would be no action in December, the thoughts within the Federal Reserve are clearly changing. It now seems that the likelihood of a rate cut in December is about twice that of no cut at all—this assessment aligns closely with the bets in the interest rate futures market. Guha specifically mentioned that officials remain "persistently anxious" about the employment data.

Looking back at the minutes from the meeting in October is even more interesting: 10 votes supported a 25 basis point rate cut, reducing the benchmark rate to the range of 3.75%-4.00%. But the key point is the 2 opposing votes—some believed it should be tightened, while others thought it should be loosened. This kind of "split decision" has not appeared since 1990. Powell acknowledged after the meeting that the underlying disagreements were more serious than the voting results suggested, and the actions in December are "far from being determined."