11.6

Yesterday's rise in the risk market led many to believe it was because the U.S. government shutdown was about to end, but there is currently no clear information indicating that the two parties have reached a consensus. A more likely driving factor is that the probability of the Supreme Court upholding Trump's global tariffs has dropped to 29%. If the tariffs are ruled illegal, American companies will face lower supply chain costs, improved profits, and alleviated inflation pressure, which will be most beneficial for industries such as technology, semiconductors, and cross-border manufacturing.
The turnover rate of BTC has decreased today, with weak sentiment in the morning. However, as favorable expectations regarding tariffs and the consensus that the impasse will be resolved next week emerge, the sentiment for risk assets has improved.

BTC
The price of Bitcoin fell below 100,000 yesterday, but by the end of the day, it managed to close above 100,000. Currently, the overall downward trend has not changed. This position will likely fluctuate around the range of 100,000 to 106,300. As long as it does not stabilize above 106,300, the risk remains unmitigated. Looking at the intraday perspective, as long as this position does not break through 102,300, there will be a rebound. The rebound will focus on 105,500-106,300, with support at 101,500-99,300 and resistance at 105,500-106,300.

ETH
The major cycle of Ethereum has not completely bottomed out yet. Currently, for a daily level rebound, it needs to stabilize above 3680 to trigger a continuation of the bullish trend; otherwise, it will oscillate between 3367 and 3685. In the intraday perspective, as long as the minor level of 3367 is not broken, there will be a small rebound, with support at 3367-3280-3166-3030 and resistance at 3479-3556.