Solana Rebound Cools: Why Long-term Holders Remain Cautious

Source: DigitalToday Original Title: Solana, the Reason Long-term Holders are Indifferent Despite the Rebound Original Link:

Cryptocurrency Solana(SOL) has seen a 4.2% rebound, but long-term holders remain cautious. Over the past month, Solana has dropped 22%, and according to on-chain data, 1-2 year holders continue to sell, with their supply share decreasing from 19.28% to 17.24%.

This has become a factor that weakens the expectation that the short-term rebound will turn into a trend reversal. If long-term holders believe in this rebound, the supply share should be maintained or increased, but instead, it has decreased, indicating that market skepticism is intensifying.

The technical aspect also shows negative signals. The 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is about to break below the 200-day EMA, forming a “bearish cross”. Historically, this pattern usually indicates further declines. In addition, the cost basis heat map shows strong selling pressure in the $140-$142 range. Investors who bought in this range are likely to sell when prices rise, which may limit further rebounds.

To achieve a real recovery, Solana needs to close above $143. After breaking this level, it may rise to $146 and $167, but if it falls below $143 again, the rebound may only be temporary. Especially if it drops below $128, further declines will be inevitable.