#DecemberRateCutForecast

Markets are pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut at the December Fed meeting. According to CME FedWatch data, the probability of a cut hovers around 68%. Signs of a cooling in the labor market, PCE inflation remaining slightly above target at 2.6%, and the inflationary impact of Trump's potential fiscal expansionary policies are steering the Fed toward cautious easing rather than a wait-and-see approach. Powell's recent statements are also data-dependent but strike a proactive tone against recession risks. A cut will strengthen expectations for a total easing of 50-75 basis points in 2025, increasing downward pressure on the dollar index and bond yields. Risk: If the cut doesn't come, a sharp market correction is inevitable.⏳⏳⏳