#美联储货币政策影响 According to the latest data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December has risen to 82.7%. This sharp increase in expectations is noteworthy and may signal heightened market concerns about the economic outlook. JPMorgan has also revised its previous projection, now expecting one rate cut in both December and January next year.

From an on-chain data analysis perspective, this shift in expectations could impact capital flows into crypto assets. Bitcoin has briefly surpassed $89,000, demonstrating its sensitivity to changes in macroeconomic policy. I will closely monitor the movements of large wallets, particularly the conversions between stablecoins and Bitcoin, to gauge market sentiment and the potential for significant capital inflows.

At the same time, it is important to be cautious about the volatility that such expectations may bring. If the Fed’s December decision does not align with market expectations, it could trigger a sharp pullback. I recommend paying attention to changes in on-chain options contracts to assess how the market is pricing in potential risks. Overall, this is an important signal worth continued monitoring.