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Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations vs. Inflation Pressure: The Last Week of 2025 Becomes the Battle Point for Bulls and Bears

This week’s non-farm payroll and CPI data will be key factors influencing the market. The November non-farm employment forecast is only an increase of 50,000 jobs, which is highly significant. If the actual data falls short of expectations, US Treasury yields may rebound, and the market will reassess the timing of Fed rate cuts, with the possibility of a rate cut in April increasing. Conversely, if employment data shows strong performance, the 10-year Treasury yield may surge to 4.25%, putting both the crypto market and traditional assets under adjustment pressure.

CPI data is also worth paying attention to. The current year-over-year expectation remains at a high 3%, well above the Fed’s 2% target level. This reflects the stubbornness of inflation stickiness—limited room for rate cuts. Powell previously hinted that interest rates are close to neutral levels, and the space for further easing policies is limited.

The market is currently betting on two more rate cuts in 2026, but can this expectation be realized? The key lies in whether labor market data can provide a clear signal. Wall Street institutions are focusing on employment reports, as employment conditions directly determine the Fed’s policy stance. Another variable not to ignore is political factors; the attitude of the new leadership towards rate cuts may trigger adjustments in policy expectations.

Data and political game intertwine, and the market is indeed at a crossroads. Will this round of data trigger a new upward cycle, or will it pour cold water on the market? The answer is about to be revealed.