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#BinanceABCs Filecoin five-year contracts enter delivery period, miners are gradually withdrawing, is this a buying opportunity for retail investors? Recently, many people have been asking "Should I still buy FIL" in the backend.
To be straightforward: you can buy, but don’t expect it to give you a tenfold increase tomorrow. Instead of hoping for a surge, it’s more reliable to treat it as a fixed asset that pays dividends.
First, let's look at the logic behind miners’ withdrawal. In October 2020, the Filecoin mainnet launched, and the first batch of five-year contracts are now entering the fourth quarter with intensive expirations. Machines being taken offline and hash power dropping are normal occurrences, just like lease expirations leading to automatic lease termination. This doesn’t mean the project is collapsing; it simply means the commitment period has ended and both parties go their separate ways. Conversely, the decrease in the number of miners relieves the pressure of forced sell-offs in the market.
The linear unlocking of Filecoin tokens has already surpassed 50%, and the craziest period of dumping has long passed. The remaining unlockable chips will become more dispersed, and the number of "time bombs" is decreasing. From a supply perspective, this is actually a positive signal.
What can retail investors do now? Hoard coins quietly and store them in cold wallets? That’s wasting opportunity costs. Currently, major exchanges are launching 3-month fixed-term financial products for Filecoin, with annualized yields between 6%-10%. Locking in the period earns interest, and other cryptocurrencies don’t offer this treatment. When the market is in a stalemate, trading contracts can easily lead to being repeatedly liquidated; it’s better to allocate some positions to spot long-term accumulation, while also using small positions to participate in financial products and earn interest—walking on two legs, slowly repairing the account.
Institutions have a more direct approach. Grayscale quietly bought 86 Filecoin transactions this year, with an average acquisition price around $10. They carry heavy annual performance targets, so they can only adopt the simplest dollar-cost averaging method, adding little by little whenever possible.
Why not follow this logic—buy more when prices fall, and rest easy collecting interest when prices rise? When next year’s market cycle warms up, your account will have both coins and accumulated interest income, making your mindset much more stable.
Don’t always dream of getting rich overnight. During bear markets, treat Filecoin as a fixed deposit; when the bull market arrives, consider the interest income as extra dividends. Ordinary investors’ opportunities to turn things around always come from those who dare to act first.