The Bank of Japan's rate hike implementation will change Bitcoin's market trend. This policy impact will unfold in three stages, and each stage must be carefully observed.

The first is the immediate reaction phase. From the rate hike announcement to within the next 24 hours, the market will mostly fluctuate. In simple terms, the market has already been watching this event, and many expectations have been digested in advance, so there won't be a direct crash. Unless the central bank provides particularly hawkish forward guidance, which could trigger a short-term sharp decline, but this is not the main downward wave, so don't panic too much.

The real test is in the medium term. The next 3 to 6 weeks are a critical window. The wave of closing out carry trades will concentrate, and institutions will start actively shedding risk assets, with Bitcoin entering a genuine main decline phase. During this period, prices will gradually bottom out, and each rebound could be seen as an opportunity to reduce holdings.

But the story isn't over yet. After hitting the bottom, there could be a turning point. Once the main decline is over, the market may enter consolidation or rebound modes, liquidity pressure will ease, and funds will look for new entry opportunities. Whether the 50,000 level can hold depends on how low this wave of decline can push the bottom.