Historically, Bitcoin often reaches its cyclical high about 18 months after the Halving. After the 2020 Halving, it peaked at $69,000 in November 2021, followed by a big dump for a year, falling to $15,500 by the end of 2022, a decline of nearly 77%.

The fourth Halving will be completed on April 20, 2024. Based on an 18-month cycle, we can expect a new high of $126,200 in October 2025. If we continue the historical fall pattern and drop by 77%, the price will break below the $30,000 mark.

But this cycle has introduced a key variable. On January 11, 2024, a leading financial institution's Bitcoin spot ETF officially landed on NASDAQ. The significance of this event can be compared to the evolution of gold—after the same institution applied for and received approval for a gold spot ETF in 2004, gold achieved several times its increase in the following years.

On the day the ETF was approved, the price of Bitcoin was $39,000. If we extrapolate with a 10-20x range, the target corresponds to the interval of $390,000 to $800,000. The problem is that, according to the four-year Halving cycle, this round's bottom is expected to be in the range of $30,000 to $60,000.

The biggest change brought by the ETF is that the bottom will be raised and the magnitude of the pullback will be reduced. Bitcoin's volatility tends to become more rational due to institutional participation, and the wealth effect will also weaken accordingly. If this round only experiences a big dump of 60% instead of 77%, then to return to the previous high, a 300% increase will be needed.

Based on a comprehensive assessment, the bottom of this round is likely to appear at the end of 2026, with prices between 30,000 to 60,000 USD. A panic index returning to around 10 would be an ideal entry point. Afterwards, hold until 12-18 months after the next Halving to sell, during which there is still a growth potential of 3-8 times.