2025-12-23 17:21:58

Watching the rebound near 3000 points for ETH today, I can't shake the feeling that something is off.

At the opening this morning, ETH hovered around 2956. The small bullish candlestick that just appeared on the 4-hour chart seems like it's about to take off at first glance, but if you take a closer look at the on-chain data and the funding situation, you'll find quite a few intricacies. A well-known analyst recently made a strong statement in a public forum—"ETH is seriously undervalued, it could reach 15,000 by the end of this year," but then turned around and revised in an internal report to his clients saying, "It might have to return to 1800-2000 in the first half of 2026." This contradictory operation indeed leaves people a bit bewildered.

Looking at the data level again. Large miners have accumulated 3.3% of the total ETH supply, and the circulation on exchanges has also dropped to a multi-year low. Logically, "with less goods, prices should rise," but the story on the spot ETF side is quite interesting—first, there was a net inflow of 53.6 million, followed by a quiet withdrawal of 20 million. This rhythm of buying and selling is generally a way for funds to test market depth.

From a technical perspective on the 4-hour chart, the middle band of the Bollinger Bands is still compressing the price, the RSI has just started to tick up but the MACD's red bars are shrinking. This kind of discordant signal combination often indicates that the strength for a rebound may be insufficient. Someone entered a long position at 3020 and is now stuck, which is a typical feeling of being drawn in and then getting shaken out.

ETH0.25%

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BoredRiceBall

· 12-23 17:49

The analyst has two opinions when they open their mouth, this operation is really amazing, huh.

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LiquidityWizard

· 12-23 17:47

The analyst's tricks are really amazing, one set in public and another behind the scenes. I just want to ask who still dares to follow? --- The brother who chased orders at 3020 must be regretting it now, haha. --- The Bollinger Bands are still pressing, and the MACD is still shrinking; this rebound is just a bull trap, no doubt about it. --- The operation of buying and selling the ETF at the same time is indeed remarkable; this is large capital testing the depth. --- The logic that less supply should lead to a rise is heard too often, but reality is never that simple. --- On-chain data looks nice, but the combination of technical signals is obviously not strong enough. --- 3000 feels like a real barrier; if it can't break through, it will have to fall. --- Miners accumulating 3.3% sounds like a lot, but the withdrawal of Spot ETFs can offset it all; this is hedging. --- RSI turning up, MACD shrinking, what does this combination usually represent... a weak rebound, right? --- A certain analyst's revision, from 15,000 to 1,800, haha, this is the crypto world.

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SchrodingersFOMO

· 12-23 17:39

It's the same old "few goods should rise" logic, but the ETF is still playing a heartbeat game, and this rebound is likely to cool off.

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ColdWalletGuardian

· 12-23 17:30

The analyst's words are like a trap; this wave of ETH is likely to be played people for suckers again.

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