At the end of the year, an unexpected variable emerged: the Fed took action three times within 10 days, injecting $38 billion into the market through repurchase agreements. This wave of "year-end management" point shaving operations immediately sparked the imagination of the crypto community regarding Bitcoin's "Santa Claus rally." But the question arises— is this truly the favorable wind to pump BTC, or is it an enticing yet fragile bubble?

The Fed's recent actions have actually seemed "both want and want" from the start. The official reason is to alleviate the year-end funding shortage and stabilize the banking system, which sounds very official. But the real trick is: while injecting money into the market, they are also quietly pushing forward with quantitative tightening, which is called "point shaving." In short, this is not the beginning of a new easing cycle, but a risk hedge that responds to risks as they arise.

The more realistic issue is that most of this liquidity has not flowed into the real economy, but instead is circulating within the Wall Street financial system. The US stock market has boomed, gold has surged, yet small business loans are declining, and ordinary people's incomes are shrinking. In this context of divergence, how can high-risk assets like encryption assets benefit from the liquidity bonus? It doesn't make sense.

What lies before Bitcoin is actually a dilemma. There is indeed a favorable side: the shift in liquidity usually benefits risk assets, and the signal that the Fed has ended its balance sheet reduction provides some confidence, coupled with the fact that the market fear index has just dropped to 25, which is a level of overselling. There is indeed a basis for BTC's rebound at the end of the year. However, looking at it from the other side, all of this is based on the assumption that "liquidity can eventually flow into encryption"—and this assumption is still very uncertain.