#美联储回购协议计划 Many people stumble in the crypto world, not because of bad luck, but because they mistake short-term fluctuations for long-term trends. This market has never been about momentary aggressive actions, but rather about whether one can maintain a clear mind in the long run.

Recently, BTC's trend illustrates the issue well. After dropping to 87121 last night, it rebounded, rising to around 88349 in the morning before starting to fall again, basically fluctuating within a narrow range. The situation with ETH is similar, slowly climbing up from a low of 2899, reaching 2987 around midnight, but it couldn't maintain its strength.

From a technical perspective, this is a typical weak consolidation. The daily chart has already declined for two consecutive days, and the pressure on the middle band of the Bollinger Bands is very obvious. Although the Bollinger Bands are narrowing and the middle band is moving downwards, it indicates that the strength of this market is fading. The 4-hour chart shows a more direct performance—the price is repeatedly oscillating around the lower middle band of the Bollinger Bands, with alternating bullish and bearish candles, showing no sense of direction.

More importantly, the signal on the MACD has already crossed downward, and it continues to diverge downwards. This indicates that the momentum is weakening. Looking at the long upper shadow above, it is clear that the bearish pressure is much greater than the support below.

Considering these factors, it is highly likely that the bears will have the upper hand. Taking into account that the fluctuations have been small in the last two days, along with the recent market closure of U.S. stocks, the market participation is already insufficient. It should be a good idea to set up short positions when rebounding to the previous highs. Short-term trading should be done this way—make sure to see clearly before taking action.