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A recent interesting phenomenon has emerged in the financial markets: the US GDP growth in Q3 exceeded expectations. It should have been good news, but the stock market did not rise as expected; instead, it experienced volatility. The underlying logic is actually not complicated—whenever economic data improves, the market begins to worry that the central bank will raise interest rates, turning good news into a negative.
How to break this "good news but no rise" cycle? Some believe that strong economic performance does not necessarily trigger inflation; the key lies in policy direction. Instead of tightening policies to curb market gains, it’s better to let the market operate normally in a positive environment, where natural rises and falls are healthy.
From a policy perspective, the current consensus seems to be shifting. Inflationary pressures can actually be gradually alleviated through market self-regulation, without relying on aggressive tightening policies. Moderate rate hikes when necessary are acceptable, but the goal should be to stabilize expectations, not artificially suppress market growth.
These views have a significant impact on the new central bank decision-makers. The market needs policymakers whose thinking aligns with their policies, rather than officials who insist on old methods of suppression. The market is waiting for a new policy paradigm—a balance point that can address economic challenges without overly interfering with normal market operations.