The outlook for airline stocks in 2025 is booming. Which of the five top-quality airline stocks is worth paying attention to? Evergreen/Delta/瑞安, which is more worth buying?

The Wave of Recovery in the Aviation Industry: Why Invest in Airline Stocks Now?

After experiencing a loss of over $140 billion during the pandemic, the global airline industry officially turned around in 2023, entering a profit recovery cycle. According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA) forecast, by 2025, global air passenger numbers will surpass pre-pandemic levels for the first time, and by 2040, air travel demand is expected to double, rising from 4 billion to 8 billion passengers, with an average annual growth rate of 3.4%.

This has not only attracted traditional investors’ attention but even cautious Warren Buffett has changed his stance. Berkshire Hathaway has recently increased holdings in the three major US airlines (Delta, United, American Airlines), and mainstream Wall Street institutions are bullish. Morgan Stanley has upgraded American Airlines from “Neutral” to “Overweight,” expecting stock price increases of over 35%.

Why Are Airline Stocks Considered Promising? Three Core Drivers

1. Economic Recovery Boosts Travel Demand
Global economic growth directly impacts disposable income and travel expenditure. In the post-pandemic era, consumer willingness to travel is high, business travel is gradually warming up, and airline revenue structures are improving.

2. Low Oil Prices Reduce Operating Costs
Fuel costs are the largest expense for airlines. Currently, international oil prices are relatively moderate, providing a breathing space for airline profitability. Historical data shows that when oil prices fall, airlines tend to lower ticket prices to stimulate passenger flow, further increasing revenue.

3. High Financing Costs Improve Corporate Profit Quality
Although rising interest rates increase borrowing costs for airlines, they also push companies to improve operational efficiency and control costs. Stronger leading companies thus stand out.

How Are Airline Stocks Classified? State-Owned vs. Private

State-Owned Airlines: Controlled or led by the government, with stable internal structures and relatively manageable risks. Suitable for investors seeking stable returns. Examples include EVA Air, China Airlines, and in Hong Kong, China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines.

Private Airlines: Operated by private capital, with more frequent shareholding changes but often more flexible market responses. Examples include Southwest Airlines, United Airlines in the US, and Spring Airlines, Juneyao Airlines in China.

Four Key Factors Influencing Airline Stock Prices

Global Economic Cycle is the primary variable. During recessions, consumers cut non-essential spending, with air travel being hit hardest; during prosperity, increased disposable income boosts travel consumption.

International Oil Price Trends directly determine airlines’ unit costs. When oil prices surge, companies are forced to raise ticket prices to offset costs, possibly reducing passenger volume; falling oil prices benefit both companies and consumers.

Interest Rate Fluctuations affect airline financing costs. High rates make borrowing expensive, constraining fleet expansion; low rates stimulate investment and growth.

Competitive Landscape and Labor Costs also matter. Intensified industry competition, union strikes, pilot shortages, and other issues threaten profit margins. Airline management must continually seek new ways to reduce costs and increase revenue.

Major US Airline Leaders: Three Key Picks Worth Deep Dive

Delta Air Lines (DAL) — Clear Advantage in Business Travelers

Fundamentals: Headquartered in Atlanta, founded in 1924, over a century of history. Network covers over 1,000 destinations across six continents. Delta excels in business travel and international routes, and controls fuel costs through its own refining operations, leading industry cost management.

Stock Performance: As of November 13, 2025, approximately $60.48, with a market cap of $39.49 billion. Year-to-date increase of 69.51%. Despite a recent dip of 3.86% in the past month, the overall trend remains upward. Morgan Stanley lists it as a top pick.

Investment Highlights: Suitable for investors willing to accept moderate volatility and optimistic about economic recovery, supported mainly by the rebound in business travel.

Copa Airlines (CPA) — Largest Growth Potential in Latin America

Fundamentals: Latin America’s leading airline, operating under Copa Airlines and AeroRepública brands, with hub in Panama City. As Latin American urbanization accelerates and disposable incomes rise, regional air travel prospects are broad.

Performance Highlights: Q2 2025 net profit reached $149 million, up 25% YoY; EPS of $3.61; cash and investments totaling $1.4 billion, accounting for 39% of revenue over the past 12 months. Operational efficiency is excellent — 91.5% on-time rate, 99.8% flight completion rate, and unit operating costs down 4.6% YoY to 8.5 cents. Recognized as the best airline in Central America and the Caribbean by Skytrax for ten consecutive years.

Market Performance: As of November 13, stock price at $523, market cap $5.23 billion, up 4.28% in the past month.

Investment Highlights: Benefiting from emerging market growth momentum, strong financial flexibility, and high resilience to risks.

Ryanair (RYAAY) — Leading Low-Cost Carrier in Europe Continues Expansion

Fundamentals: The world’s largest low-cost airline group, based in Ireland, with brands including Ryanair and Buzz. Founded in 1985, known for low fares and high operational efficiency. Fleet exceeds 640 aircraft, operating about 3,600 flights daily, transporting 207 million passengers annually.

Expansion Strategy: Orders 300 new Boeing 737 aircraft, aiming to reach 300 million passengers annually by 2034. Plans to add 3 aircraft at Milan in winter 2025 (investment of $3.1 billion), open 5 new routes, and increase 40 popular routes, with projected passenger growth to 19 million, up 4% YoY.

Stock Trend: As of November 13, close at $64.61, market cap $34.317 billion, up 43.91% in the past month. Slight decline of 0.49% on the day but supported by solid fundamentals.

Investment Logic: European economic recovery accelerates travel demand; low-cost model offers strong cyclical resilience.

Taiwan Stock Airline Stocks: Three with Distinct Features

Evergreen Marine (2618) — Leading Five-Star Certified Airline Steady Progress

EVA Air is one of Taiwan’s two major airlines, established in 1989. Awarded Skytrax five-star rating, fleet includes Boeing 787 Dreamliner and A350, serving over 60 international destinations worldwide, offering multi-tiered services.

Operational Results: Q3 2025 passenger load factor at 92.5%, domestic routes at 93.5%, international capacity ( ASK) increased by 28%. Recently added Boeing 787 to routes including Brisbane, with plans to extend to Vancouver.

Market Performance: As of November 13, closing at NT$37.2, market cap NT$186 billion. Analysts expect full-year EPS to reach NT$37.84.

China Airlines (2610) — Traditional Leader with Passenger and Cargo Operations

Taiwan’s oldest airline, founded in 1959, part of SkyTeam alliance. Operates both full-service and low-cost segments with subsidiaries like Mandarin Airlines and Tigerair Taiwan. Fleet of 83 aircraft (65 passenger, 18 cargo), over 1,400 weekly flights.

Performance: Q3 2025 passenger load factor at 86.9%, up 4.4 percentage points from 2019; international capacity up 13% YoY. Stock price as of November 13 at NT$28.6, market cap NT$162 billion.

Starlux Airlines (2646) — Fastest Growing New Full-Service Airline

Emerging Taiwanese full-service airline, launched in 2020, rapidly expanding routes across Asia and North America.

Impressive Data: Q3 2025 passenger load factor at 85.9%, domestic at 86.3%, international capacity up 10%. The new Taipei-California Ontario route booked at 80% capacity since June. Added 10 A350-1000 flagship aircraft at Paris Air Show, planning to deploy on new routes. Also launched Taichung-Kobe route in April to strengthen Northeast Asia network.

Stock Performance: As of November 13, NT$42.8, market cap over NT$95 billion, up about 18% since start of the year, representing a growth stock in the airline sector.

Challenges and Opportunities Facing Airline Stocks

Cost Structure Pressures Are Hard to Fully Eliminate
Fuel, labor, and maintenance are the three main costs. Rising oil prices or labor shortages can suppress profits. This is the inherent cycle of the airline industry.

High Debt and Capital Expenditure Test Financial Resilience
Most airlines carry high leverage. Reversals in the economy or rising interest rates can sharply increase financial strain. During the pandemic, many airlines issued new equity, risking dilution.

Black Swan Risks Always Exist
Geopolitical crises, weather anomalies, airspace restrictions, and other external shocks are unpredictable but can cause sudden flight reductions and passenger declines, leading to volatile stock prices.

On the Flip Side, These Challenges Also Filter Out True Winners. Well-capitalized, cash-rich, efficiently operated large airlines often achieve excess returns during economic recovery.

Practical Investment Tips for Airline Stocks

Align with Economic Cycles
Airline stocks are cyclical. The best entry points are often in the late stage of the cycle when market expectations turn positive. Profits are improving, but stock prices haven’t fully reflected this.

Diversify Across Regions
Spreading investments among different regional airline stocks can effectively reduce single-market risk. US, Taiwan, and Hong Kong airline leaders each have unique features, and a balanced portfolio can optimize risk and return.

Prioritize Cash-Rich Airlines
The airline industry is capital-intensive. Focus on companies with strong cash reserves, manageable debt, and healthy operating cash flow to withstand downturns.

Monitor Non-Fare Revenue Structures
Modern airlines rely increasingly on ancillary revenues like baggage fees, seat upgrades, loyalty programs, cargo, and co-branded credit cards. These sources bolster profits and improve resilience during off-peak seasons.

Summary: Is 2025-2026 a Good Time to Invest in Airline Stocks?

The answer is conditional. Factors such as surpassing pre-pandemic passenger numbers, continued recovery in business travel, explosive demand in emerging markets, and moderate oil prices all point to an upward cycle for the airline industry. However, investors must recognize that this is a cyclical sector with inevitable volatility.

For those with moderate risk tolerance and an optimistic view of economic prospects, now is indeed a suitable window to position in airline stocks. The key is to select fundamentally solid, operationally efficient, and cash-flow-strong leading companies, and to diversify across regions and business models (full-service vs. low-cost) to balance risks. In the long run, the growth potential of the airline industry remains promising.